基于VAR模型的海洋经济增长、产业结构变动与涉海就业关联分析

Abstract:China’s marine economy had grown rapidly from 2001 to 2014 and it’s industrial structure shown “high-level” state and had remained stable，ocean-related employment had increased and maintained a higher per capita output，marine economy has increasingly become the important growth point of national economy. In order to know the relationship among the ocean economic growth and the change of industrial structure and ocean-related employment，this paper includes the above three factors in the same framework and analyse interactively using VAR model. Analyse the relationship among the three factors by granger causality test of VAR（2）model，IRF impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis tools. The conclusion is that marine economy growth and ocean-related employment number is the granger causality of the change of the marine economy industry structure；Marine economy growth has long-term and one-way impact on the marine industry structure changes，contribution is about 40%；Ocean-related employment has alternating direction dynamic effect on the marine industry structure changes，contribution is about 6%. This paper gives the suggestions that put forward improving the quality of marine economic development，promote marine development of emerging industry and promote the free flow of ocean-related employment people.

收起