广西北部湾海洋环境承载力预测及政策设计

Abstract:The present situation and future trend of marine environmental carrying capacity in Beibu Gulf have decisive effect on the sustainable and healthy development of marine economy in this area. We use the state-space techniques to calculates the current value of Guangxi Beibu Gulf marine environment carrying capacity. And through the establishment of Guangxi Beibu Gulf marine envi-ronment carrying capacity system dynamics model，we predict 2015-2030 marine environment carrying capacity index data of Guangxi Beibu Gulf，and then calculate the predictive value of carrying capacity. The research results show that：according to the current development model，the marine environmental carrying capacity of the Beibu Gulf of Guangxi will reach full load status in 2017. By adjusting the parameters of the policy intervention in the simulation system，we design the future development plan of Guangxi Beibu Gulf to delay the time of carrying capacity reaching the upper limit of the area.

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