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区域货币联动与政策干预:中日韩实证分析

作者:谷家奎 陈守东 出版日期:2016年06月 报告页数:18 页 报告大小: 报告字数:19202 字 所属图书:数量经济研究(2016年第7卷 第1期) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:开放经济条件下,金融风险的传染性使得各国市场不再是孤立封闭的,金融市场的依赖性加剧。基于亚洲区域经济体金融合作的现实及其重要性,本文研究了中日韩货币的波动性与区域联动机制,并检验了货币政策对外汇市场的干预效应。实证结果表明,中日韩三国货币的波动性存在一定差异,其中日元和韩元的波动受金融危机冲击较大。单独的货币政策干预来看,只有中国对外汇市场的干预是有效的,日韩干预效应不显著。本文构建的多元波动模型结果显示,两国汇率之间的相关性在金融危... 展开

文章摘要:开放经济条件下,金融风险的传染性使得各国市场不再是孤立封闭的,金融市场的依赖性加剧。基于亚洲区域经济体金融合作的现实及其重要性,本文研究了中日韩货币的波动性与区域联动机制,并检验了货币政策对外汇市场的干预效应。实证结果表明,中日韩三国货币的波动性存在一定差异,其中日元和韩元的波动受金融危机冲击较大。单独的货币政策干预来看,只有中国对外汇市场的干预是有效的,日韩干预效应不显著。本文构建的多元波动模型结果显示,两国汇率之间的相关性在金融危机期间倾向于增加,存在显著的汇率风险传染效应。引入货币政策联合干预以后,结果显示中日和中韩对外汇市场协同波动的联合干预作用有效,而日韩对外汇市场协同波动的干预效果不显著。

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Abstract:The infectious of financial risk make the national markets no longer isolated within open economy,financial markets are more dependent. Based on the reality and importance of Asian regional economics financial cooperation,we study the volatility and linkage mechanism within China,Japan and South Korea,and test the intervention effects of monetary policy on foreign exchange market. The empirical result shows that,there are some di... 展开

Abstract:The infectious of financial risk make the national markets no longer isolated within open economy,financial markets are more dependent. Based on the reality and importance of Asian regional economics financial cooperation,we study the volatility and linkage mechanism within China,Japan and South Korea,and test the intervention effects of monetary policy on foreign exchange market. The empirical result shows that,there are some differences in currency volatility,the yen and won fluctuations suffer greater impact by financial crisis. Only China intervention in the foreign exchange market is effective,and the intervention effect of Japan and South Korea are not significant. We can also see that the correlation between country exchange rates tend to increase during the financial crisis,and the currency risk contagion effect is significant. Considered the joint intervention of monetary policy,the result shows that the intervention on foreign exchange markets between China and Japan,China and South Korea,are effective,while Japan and South Korea not.

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作者简介

谷家奎:谷家奎(1985-),男,汉族,山东省郓城县人,吉林大学数量经济学博士,现就职于中国中投证券博士后科研工作站,研究方向:金融计量分析。

陈守东:陈守东(1955-),男,汉族,天津市蓟县人,吉林大学教授、博士生导师,研究方向:金融与投资。