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伊朗的人口发展状况与人口政策演变

作者:张立明 出版日期:2016年10月 报告页数:24 页 报告大小: 报告字数:21091 字 所属丛书:伊朗蓝皮书 所属图书:伊朗发展报告(2015~2016) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:从1956年首次人口普查开始,半个世纪以来伊朗的人口以平均每年100万人持续增长。但各个阶段的人口增长速度并不均衡,20世纪80年代前后有一个生育高峰,从90年代开始,随着计划生育政策的实施,人口增速逐步放缓。进入21世纪伊朗成为首个迈入低生育率、低自然增长率的伊斯兰国家。人口专家预测在未来30~40年,伊朗可能面临人口减少和老龄化问题。出于对老龄化和人口减少的担忧,2012年宗教领袖哈梅内伊发声批评政府的人口控制政策,并于2014年颁布了增加人口的指示,伊朗... 展开

文章摘要:从1956年首次人口普查开始,半个世纪以来伊朗的人口以平均每年100万人持续增长。但各个阶段的人口增长速度并不均衡,20世纪80年代前后有一个生育高峰,从90年代开始,随着计划生育政策的实施,人口增速逐步放缓。进入21世纪伊朗成为首个迈入低生育率、低自然增长率的伊斯兰国家。人口专家预测在未来30~40年,伊朗可能面临人口减少和老龄化问题。出于对老龄化和人口减少的担忧,2012年宗教领袖哈梅内伊发声批评政府的人口控制政策,并于2014年颁布了增加人口的指示,伊朗正式由控制人口转向鼓励人口增长。从20世纪60年代迄今,伊朗政府根据人口发展变化,多次调整人口政策。除伊斯兰革命后约10年时间外,人口政策的总体思路是控制人口增长,并取得了突出的成就。考察伊朗控制人口增长取得成功的原因,计划生育政策只是表层因素,近30年来伊朗社会、经济、文化的发展变化和人们生活方式的改变,才是人口增长率下降的决定性因素。因此,尽管伊朗已出台一系列法规和措施来鼓励人口增长,但人口发展趋势在短时间内难以出现根本性逆转。

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Abstract:The population of Iran has increased on average one million people annually since the first census in 1956. However,the speed of the increase differentiates among periods. There was a baby boom about the 1980s,and the increase of the population slowed down gradually because of the Family Planning policy. In the 21 century,Iran became the first Islamic country with low TFR and low natural population growth rate. Predicted by populat... 展开

Abstract:The population of Iran has increased on average one million people annually since the first census in 1956. However,the speed of the increase differentiates among periods. There was a baby boom about the 1980s,and the increase of the population slowed down gradually because of the Family Planning policy. In the 21 century,Iran became the first Islamic country with low TFR and low natural population growth rate. Predicted by population experts,the country might face the issue of population decline and the aging problem in 30 to 40 years. Concerned about that,Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,the religious leader,in 2012 publicly criticized the Family Planning policy imposed by the government and decreed the instruction of increasing population in 2014,which was the official turning point from controlling to the encouragement of child birth. Since the 1960s,the Iranian government has adjusted the population policy several times based on the development of population. Except for the 10 years after the Islamic Revolution,the policy has been supportive on the increase and has made prominent achievement. The implementation of Family planning policy is just an external factor to the success of population control in Iran,and it is the development of the society,economy and culture in Iran and the improvement of people’s lifestyle that stand for the decisive factor in the slowing of population increase. Therefore,although there are some legislations and measurements encouraging the increase of population,the whole trend of population development would not have fundamental reverse in a short while.

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作者简介

张立明:张立明,解放军外国语学院副教授。