初级产品与工业制成品贸易条件变动趋势及其对中国的启示

Abstract:Changes in the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods has been a controversial topic in history，among which the “Prebisch - Singer hypothesis” which believes in a long-term deteriorating trend dominates the mainstream. However，with the changing economic situation，one can observes the phenomenon that the prices of some primary commodities enjoy an obviously quick rise，while some of the prices of manufactured goods suffer significant decline. Thus，on the basis of forefathers’ research，this paper makes a re-examination on the terms of trade，especially that between primary commodities and manufactured goods through theoretical and empirical approach，aiming to find out the patterns behind and the reality. Meanwhile，this paper classified for 15 set of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods to examine their trends in the sample period of 1960-2012，which indirectly shows the fundamental influence of value and supply & demand on the terms of trade. Against analysis of the results，this paper presents suggestions for China’s international trade policy.

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