气候变化对中国海洋经济影响分析

Abstract:The sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC）highlighted the negative role of the ocean in climate change mitigation and the dire effects of climate change on marine ecosystems. This study accelerated the impact of global climate change. Implementing the Marine economy strategy of sustainability and climate change adaptation is an unavoidable choice for China’s Marine economy’s high-quality development. This paper analyzes the current state of global climate change，the relationship between global climate change and the marine economy based on the theory of system dynamics，constructs a climate change-economic impact-adaptation policy framework，and forecasts the development of Marine primary，secondary，and tertiary industries in 2021-2022 using the sixth IPCC report. China’s Marine primary sector（Marine fishing industry，aquaculture industry）is less impacted by climate change in the short term，and its output value will continue to rise over the next two years，according to the results. As a result of climate change，the added value of the Marine engineering construction sector will fluctuate，whereas the output value of the Marine chemical business would rise. Extreme weather occurrences will have an influence on the production value of China’s Marine tertiary industry（Marine transportation industry，coastal tourism），but the overall output value will continue to rise over the next two years. This paper recommends the incorporation of ocean-based measures into climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies，plans，and policies，as well as ensuring the long-term viability of policies；the accounting and supervision of existing marine resources，and the promotion of the digitization of information on marine resources. Increase investments in the capability for marine science and foster international cooperation in marine science and technology；Strengthen economic analysis and economic tools in Marine management，particularly in integrated Marine management，and make greater efforts to enhance the flexibility of Marine economy to climate change and support the establishment of a high-quality Marine economy.

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