俄乌冲突对国际粮食贸易及中国粮食市场的影响

Abstract:In the global food market，Russia and Ukraine are important food producing and exporting countries. Based on daily data from November 1，2021 to December 31，2022，using the DCC-MGARCH model，we systematically analyze the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international and domestic food prices，which broke out on February 24，2022. We find that：firstly，international corn，wheat，and soybean prices show rapid increases during the Russia-Ukraine conflict，all of which are significantly positively affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict；Secondly，there is a large spillover effect of mutual positive fluctuations among international corn，wheat，and soybean prices，which exacerbates the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international food price fluctuations；Thirdly，compared with the increase in international food prices，China’s domestic corn，wheat and soybean prices increase less during the Russia-Ukraine conflict，and corn and wheat prices are also significantly positively affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict；Fourthly，there is a mutual volatility spillover effect between China’s domestic corn and wheat prices and the three types of international food prices，which exacerbates the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on China’s food price volatility. We show that although China has a strong capacity for food self-sufficiency，maintaining China’s food security still requires to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical risks and their resulting spillover effects among multiple linked markets on China’s food market.

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