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再论2010年中东剧变的历史背景、特征和影响

作者:黄民兴 出版日期:2020年05月 报告页数:26 页 报告大小: 报告字数:31627 字 所属图书:中东研究 2019年第2期(总第10期) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:中东剧变的历史背景包括以下方面:(1)本地区的现代化进展迟缓,社会经济方面的发展成效不明显;(2)政治民主化进展迟缓;(3)伊斯兰主义组织的发展;(4)促进舆论开放和政治经济演变的国内外的压力增长。从宏观层面看,剧变的基本特征可以大致归纳为明显的广泛性、自发性、草根性、时代性、非宗教性、不确定性和综合性,尤其是初期。整体来看,中东剧变产生了如下重要影响。第一,对中东自第一次世界大战以来形成的现有国家体系产生了重大威胁。第二,内部政治力量对... 展开

文章摘要:中东剧变的历史背景包括以下方面:(1)本地区的现代化进展迟缓,社会经济方面的发展成效不明显;(2)政治民主化进展迟缓;(3)伊斯兰主义组织的发展;(4)促进舆论开放和政治经济演变的国内外的压力增长。从宏观层面看,剧变的基本特征可以大致归纳为明显的广泛性、自发性、草根性、时代性、非宗教性、不确定性和综合性,尤其是初期。整体来看,中东剧变产生了如下重要影响。第一,对中东自第一次世界大战以来形成的现有国家体系产生了重大威胁。第二,内部政治力量对比的变化,对一些中东国家的政治体制和中央集权产生了程度不同的影响。第三,宗教极端势力的崛起,产生了严重的地缘政治影响。第四,中东国家的经济呈现波动状态,饱受内战折磨的国家则经历了明显的衰退。第五,中东社会受到冲击。第六,中东的地缘格局发生重大变化。第七,中东剧变造成大量的人员伤亡和严重的人道主义危机。

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Abstract:the historical background of the Upheaval in the Middle East includes the following aspects:(1)The progress of modernization in the region is slow,and the effect of social and economic development is not obvious. (2)The progress of political democratization is also slow. (3)The development of civil society,especially Islamist organizations. (4)Pressure growth at home and abroad to promote the opening of public opinion and t... 展开

Abstract:the historical background of the Upheaval in the Middle East includes the following aspects:(1)The progress of modernization in the region is slow,and the effect of social and economic development is not obvious. (2)The progress of political democratization is also slow. (3)The development of civil society,especially Islamist organizations. (4)Pressure growth at home and abroad to promote the opening of public opinion and the evolution of political economy. From the macro level,the basic characteristics of the upheaval can be summarized as obvious universality,spontaneity,grassroots,epochal,secularity,uncertainty and comprehensiveness,especially in the early stage. On the whole,the Upheaval in the Middle East has had the following important effects:firstly,it has posed a major threat to the existing state system in the Middle East since the World War I. Secondly,through the change of the internal political power contrast,the political system and centralization of some Middle East countries have been affected to different degrees. Thirdly,the rise of extreme religious forces has a serious geopolitical impact. Fourthly,the economy of the Middle East countries is in a state of fluctuation,while the countries suffering from civil war have experienced obvious recession. Fifthly,the Middle East society has been hit. Sixthly,major changes have taken place in the geographical pattern of the Middle East. Finally,the Upheaval in the Middle East has resulted in a large number of casualties and serious humanitarian crisis.

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作者简介

黄民兴:黄民兴,西北大学中东研究所教授。