缅甸威权政治的社会基础与未来图景——基于社会情绪的视角

Abstract:Myanmar has been an independent country for more than 70 years since 1948，including more than 50 years of military rule. The frequent rise and long-term survival of authoritarian politics in Myanmar have been the focus of academic attention. After the Tatmadaw took power for the fourth time on February 2021，relevant analysis and discussion are numerous，mainly focus on the Tatmadaw-government relation and constitutional crisis. This paper tries a new way to explain the interweaving and cyclic alternation of Myanmar’s military politics and democratization process from the perspective of social psychology，especially the social emotions of the grass-roots people in Myanmar. To be specific，the fear of authoritarian politics in the grassroots society of Myanmar during the period of military rule was the internal power to promote the process of democratization. The fear of equal rights held by the Burmese people in the process of democratization is the social basis for calling for authoritarian politics. Based on this，the future of Myanmar’s political transformation will be a long struggle between democracy and authoritarianism.

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