2020～2021年菲美关系：有限回暖，未来走向仍有变数

Abstract:In 2020-2021，after a period of low-level operation，relations between the Philippines and the United States have recovered. Donald Trump is inclined to isolationism，and Rodrigo Duterte insists on independence，which constantly shocks the bilateral relations between the Philippines and the United States. However，Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. takes office to actively repair the global partnership and promote the warming of the political relations between the Philippines and the United States. Philippine-US military cooperation has been seriously frustrated by the Philippines’ unilateral proposal to abolish the “Visiting Forces Agreement”（VFA），but there has been no fundamental setback in defense relations between the two countries，and military cooperation between the two countries has increased. In addition，the U.S. assistance to the Philippines in sudden disasters and economic and social aspects has effectively consolidated the social foundation of the Philippine-American alliance，and the opinion polls in the Philippines also reflect the public support for warmer relations between the two countries. Because Duterte pursues a diplomatic strategy which balances the power of the great powers，the callback of Philippines-US relations will be limited to a certain range. In addition，COVID-19 pandemic，human rights issues，domestic issues and relations between the two countries and the third-party countries will bring variables to the future of Philippine-American relations. The adjustment of Philippine-US relations will also have an impact on the development of Philippine-China relations. Therefore，China should pay full attention to this situation and prepare for the latest trends.

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