2019~2020年苏丹过渡期政治转型的三大趋势

Abstract:Sudan’s Bashir regime，which had been in power for nearly 30 years，collapsed in April 2019，and Sudan has since entered a transitional period of political transformation. For more than two years，Sudan’s domestic political forces have been fiercely struggling and compromising with one another around the distribution of power and the long-term interests of the post-transitional period. The post-Bashir era is characterized by three major trends：political democratization，political pluralism and de-extremism of political ideology. Conservative forces hope to maintain their vested interests through a “soft landing” of the political transformation，which results in a shift to the right of the transitional regime. In addition，the economic development and livelihood issues that triggered the Sudanese revolution are likely to deteriorate in the short term. Such domestic and foreign factors as the projection of competition among major powers in the context of the great change unprecedented in 100 years，the reshaping of the West Asia and North Africa region，and the impact of COVID-19 will add great uncertainty to the future of Sudan’s political transformation. How the transitional regime in Sudan can make the best use of the situation，break out of the “trap” of Western-style democracy，and lead Sudan onto the road to peace，stability and sustainable development will test the collective wisdom of the Sudanese people and political elites.

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