2021年中国房地产市场回顾与2022年展望

Abstract:The real estate market in 2021 showed a clear “upper and lower half”，and market enthusiasm began to decline sharply in the third quarter. Policy regulation has shown stronger influence，and the centralized transfer of land in key cities has made the fluctuation of the land market more controllable. Various restrictions on the financing of the real estate industry have directly led to a rare wave of defaults by real estate companies in history，and this symptom will continue. China’s total population will reach its peak between 2022-2030. At the same time，with the slowdown in economic growth and changes in asset allocation ratios，more and more cities will face greater downward pressure on the housing market during this period，which is caused by population migration. Regional differentiation will enable some hot cities to keep the real estate market going up for a long time. Given that most cities are still very dependent on land finances，it is difficult for real estate taxes to replace land finances in the short term. Therefore，the real estate industry will still play an important role in the next 10 years and will not collapse quickly，but the overall market has no obvious room for expansion.

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