2016年中国对外贸易曲折发展

Abstract:China’s foreign trade in 2015 exhibited double-speed downtrend，but a substantial increase in net exports of goods trade pulled one-third of economic growth in 2015，which created a historic miracle.International trade in 2016 is facing severe test. There are two possibilities in the development of the world economy：one is that the recovery remains weak，the other is that the word economy is caught in a synchronized downturn. We expect RMB-denominated China’s foreign trade value in 2016 will either decline more slowly or more rapidly than in 2015. Objective evaluation of foreign trade requires the distinguishment of exports and imports. The quantity and quality of China’s export growth have been steadily improving and there is no need to worry about China’s export trade since the exchange rate factor was the “culprit” of the decline in China’s exports.The primary criterion in the valuation of a country’s import trade is that whether the imports can meet the needs of national economic development. Firstly，special attention should pay to energy and the safe and reliable supply of important strategic resource. Secondly，when purchasing the same quantity and quality of imported products，whether the prices paid are high or low？The lower the prices，the greater import revenues are. Using this criterion to evaluate the 2015 Chinese import trade，we will draw completely different conclusion from the media.

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