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2017年也门危机发展态势及前景评估

作者:李睿恒 刘欣路 出版日期:2018年10月 报告页数:15 页 报告大小: 报告字数:14038 字 所属丛书:阿拉伯黄皮书 所属图书:阿拉伯发展报告(2017~2018) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2011年,也门长期形成的政治与经济矛盾在“阿拉伯之春”背景下激化,并导致萨利赫政权最终下台。但迄今为止,政局变化并未解决也门固有问题,相反,政治失序引发各方政治势力争夺权力,胡塞武装乘机兴起。2015年3月沙特联军军事介入也门以来,也门局势向胡塞与反胡塞阵营对垒方向演进,最终导致战场形势陷入胶着,并由此产生多重影响。2017年,沙特试图通过瓦解萨利赫与胡塞武装间联盟打破僵局,但萨利赫去世、反胡塞阵营内部复杂性,以及地区格局演变态势,决定了也门局... 展开

文章摘要:2011年,也门长期形成的政治与经济矛盾在“阿拉伯之春”背景下激化,并导致萨利赫政权最终下台。但迄今为止,政局变化并未解决也门固有问题,相反,政治失序引发各方政治势力争夺权力,胡塞武装乘机兴起。2015年3月沙特联军军事介入也门以来,也门局势向胡塞与反胡塞阵营对垒方向演进,最终导致战场形势陷入胶着,并由此产生多重影响。2017年,沙特试图通过瓦解萨利赫与胡塞武装间联盟打破僵局,但萨利赫去世、反胡塞阵营内部复杂性,以及地区格局演变态势,决定了也门局势依旧呈现高度的不确定性。

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Abstract:In 2011,Yemen's long-standing political and economic conflicts intensified in the context of the Arab Spring,eventually leading to the fall of the Saleh regime. So far,the political changes have not resolved Yemen's inherent problems. On the contrary,political disorder has triggered a struggle for power by various parties,and the Houthi armed forces have seized this opportunity to rise. Since March 2015,when the Saudi coalition ... 展开

Abstract:In 2011,Yemen's long-standing political and economic conflicts intensified in the context of the Arab Spring,eventually leading to the fall of the Saleh regime. So far,the political changes have not resolved Yemen's inherent problems. On the contrary,political disorder has triggered a struggle for power by various parties,and the Houthi armed forces have seized this opportunity to rise. Since March 2015,when the Saudi coalition military began to intervene in Yemen,the situation in Yemen has evolved in the direction of confrontation between the Houthi and the anti-Houthi camp,resulting in a deadlocked situation with multiple consequences. In 2017,Saudi Arabia tried to break the deadlock by breaking up the alliance between Saleh and the Houthi armed forces,but the effort was underminde by Saleh'd death,the internal complexity of the anti-Houthi camp,as well as the evolution of the regional pattern. The situation in Yemen is full of uncertainty.

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作者简介

李睿恒:李睿恒,教育部国别和区域研究基地海湾阿拉伯国家研究中心助理研究员,北京大学阿拉伯语系2017级博士研究生;

刘欣路:刘欣路,博士,北京外国语大学阿拉伯学院教授。