2020年中国与南亚区域经济合作分析与展望

Abstract:The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has brought severe challenges to the economic and political prospects of South Asia. The pandemic plunged South Asia’s economy into a state of stagnation in the first half of 2020. South Asian governments actively stabilized economic activities through monetary easing，fiscal stimulus and supportive financial policies. In the third quarter，the economic downturn in South Asia improved，but the recovery was still unstable and varied greatly from country to country. The pandemic further exposed the fragility of the political and security situation in South Asia，and also intensified geopolitical competition and struggle among major powers. In particular，the rise of Indian nationalism brought many challenges to the regional cooperation between China and South Asia. Due to the pandemic，the trade volume between China and South Asia declined slightly in 2020 as a whole. As South Asia’s largest trading partner，India also took more trade and investment protectionism measures against China in 2020. The travel delayed. Entry restriction and supply chain disruption caused by the pandemic also inevitably slowed down some China’s major construction projects in South Asia，many of which constitute an integral part of the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-South Asia trade facilitation plan. Considering that the development of the pandemic and the international situation has brought about many significant changes in the economic，political and foreign policies of South Asian countries，the prospect of the regional cooperation between China and South Asia will depend on three factors：the duration of the pandemic，the trend of China-India relations，and the geography and security situation in South Asia. At present，both China and South Asian countries are at the critical stage of economic development and transformation，which means that both sides need a positive external environment to sustain the development. China should make full use of the existing multilateral and regional cooperation mechanisms in such areas as politics，economy，culture and security. China should also properly handle differences with those countries，reach a cooperation consensus，expand cooperation possibilities，and deepen the economic cooperation with South Asia.

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