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2020年苏丹发展报告

作者:黄元鹏 周华 出版日期:2021年01月 报告页数:13 页 报告大小: 报告字数:10962 字 所属丛书:阿拉伯黄皮书 所属图书:阿拉伯发展报告(2020) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2019年4月,执政近30年的巴希尔政权在苏丹民众的示威声中轰然倒台。作为阿拉伯世界首个由政治伊斯兰势力控制并相对长期执政的政权,巴希尔政权倒台的原因复杂,并将深刻影响地区局势,值得关注和研究。本文借鉴政治合法性的相关理论,认为对苏丹巴希尔政权而言,意识形态、执政能力和施政绩效是三个由里及外、相互联系的重要合法性资源。巴希尔政权倒台的根源,在于这三大合法性资源的流失与枯竭。本文据此分析巴希尔政权倒台的深层次原因,并对苏丹局势未来走向做出一个... 展开

文章摘要:2019年4月,执政近30年的巴希尔政权在苏丹民众的示威声中轰然倒台。作为阿拉伯世界首个由政治伊斯兰势力控制并相对长期执政的政权,巴希尔政权倒台的原因复杂,并将深刻影响地区局势,值得关注和研究。本文借鉴政治合法性的相关理论,认为对苏丹巴希尔政权而言,意识形态、执政能力和施政绩效是三个由里及外、相互联系的重要合法性资源。巴希尔政权倒台的根源,在于这三大合法性资源的流失与枯竭。本文据此分析巴希尔政权倒台的深层次原因,并对苏丹局势未来走向做出一个初步的预判。

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Abstract:In April 2019,the Bashir regime,which had been in power for nearly 30 years,collapsed in the protests of Sudanese people. As the first regime in the Arab world controlled by political and Islamic forces and relatively long-standing,its fall is attributable to complex reasons and will profoundly affect the regional situation. Based on the theory of political legitimacy,this paper holds that ideology,governing ability and governan... 展开

Abstract:In April 2019,the Bashir regime,which had been in power for nearly 30 years,collapsed in the protests of Sudanese people. As the first regime in the Arab world controlled by political and Islamic forces and relatively long-standing,its fall is attributable to complex reasons and will profoundly affect the regional situation. Based on the theory of political legitimacy,this paper holds that ideology,governing ability and governance performance are three important legitimacy resources connected from inside to outside. The root cause of the Bashir regime’s fall lies in the loss and depletion of these three legitimate resources. Based on this analysis,a preliminary prediction is made of the future situation of the Sudan.

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作者简介

黄元鹏:黄元鹏,中央广播电视总台前驻中东地区记者。

周华:周华,北京语言大学中东学院副教授,主要从事阿语教学与研究。