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2019年中澳关系:从特恩布尔到莫里森时代的危机与转机

作者:谢来辉 出版日期:2020年12月 报告页数:24 页 报告大小: 报告字数:25068 字 所属丛书:亚太蓝皮书 所属图书:亚太地区发展报告(2020) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:在中美大博弈的背景下,澳大利亚的表现显得格外突出。特恩布尔政府在通过抵制外国影响力法案、以国家安全为由禁止中国企业参加5G项目、渲染中国在南太地区的影响力上升等方面,采取了一些明显有针对性的做法。这些做法不仅鼓励了国内种族主义和排外情绪,也对中澳之间的政治互信造成了非常严重的伤害,导致双边关系跌至最近30年来罕见的低谷。在这种背景下,两国的经贸关系面临明显的压力,尽管基本上保持稳定,但是也出现了贸易增速下降和投资大幅减少的趋势。特恩布尔在... 展开

文章摘要:在中美大博弈的背景下,澳大利亚的表现显得格外突出。特恩布尔政府在通过抵制外国影响力法案、以国家安全为由禁止中国企业参加5G项目、渲染中国在南太地区的影响力上升等方面,采取了一些明显有针对性的做法。这些做法不仅鼓励了国内种族主义和排外情绪,也对中澳之间的政治互信造成了非常严重的伤害,导致双边关系跌至最近30年来罕见的低谷。在这种背景下,两国的经贸关系面临明显的压力,尽管基本上保持稳定,但是也出现了贸易增速下降和投资大幅减少的趋势。特恩布尔在执政后期试图采取调整措施以缓和中澳关系。莫里森在2018年8月接任总理后,延续了这一外交方向,继续释放一些和解信号。特别是在中美发生贸易摩擦时,澳大利亚试图采取更加独立和中立的立场,以推动双方达成协议。在这些因素的推动下,中澳关系在2018年11月开始出现明显转机。不过,中澳关系的政治基础仍然脆弱,双方都面临重新适应对方的挑战。而且,受制于价值观成见和现有地区安全架构,莫里森政府能否成功制定不偏不倚的外交战略仍然是一个问题。

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Abstract:In the context of the great game between China and the United States,Australia’s performance stands out. Relations between the United States and Australia have been in crisis since Donald Trump took office,and the Turnbull government has strengthened its alliance with the United States. The Turnbull government has gone too far in passing laws on foreign influence,banning Chinese companies from 5G projects on national security grou... 展开

Abstract:In the context of the great game between China and the United States,Australia’s performance stands out. Relations between the United States and Australia have been in crisis since Donald Trump took office,and the Turnbull government has strengthened its alliance with the United States. The Turnbull government has gone too far in passing laws on foreign influence,banning Chinese companies from 5G projects on national security grounds and playing up China’s growing influence in the South Pacific. These practices not only encouraged racism and xenophobia at home,but also seriously damaged the political mutual trust between China and Australia,causing bilateral relations to fall to their lowest level in the past three decades. Against this backdrop,economic relations between the two countries have remained basically stable,but there are also clear pressures. In his later years in office,Mr Turnbull also recognised the consequences of the problems and tried to make adjustments to smooth relations with China. Morrison continued this diplomatic direction when he took over as prime minister in August 2018,continuing to send some conciliatory signals. In particular,under the background of Sino-U.S. trade frictions,Australia has tried to take a more independent and neutral stance to push for an trade agreement. Driven by these factors,China-Australia relations took a clear turn in November 2018. However,the political underpinnings of the relationship remain fragile and both sides face the challenge of readjusting to the other. Moreover,it remains to be seen whether the Morrison administration will succeed in developing an even-hand diplomatic strategy,constrained by values stereotypes and the existing regional security architecture.

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作者简介

谢来辉:谢来辉,博士,中国社会科学院澳大利亚新西兰与南太平洋研究中心副研究员,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院一带一路研究室副主任,主要研究方向为国际政治经济学。