2019年巴黎的莫斯科转向：背景、过程与前景

Abstract:Paris’ Pivot to Moscow began its probing phase as early as the inauguration of Macron’s presidency. A phase of disappointment followed. The interaction leapfrogged，however，when Macron was poised to gain the de facto leadership of the EU. The rapprochement with Moscow，informed by the internalized French exceptionalism tenet of the French political elite and its interpretation and conception of French national interest，the European order and the world order，has been markedly animated by a spirit of balancing and has resulted in the conception trio of the “French European Order”，“American European Order” and “German European Order” contending for primacy. This neo-oriental turn，imbued with strategic ambiguity，can arguably be perceived as a “containment through engagement” approach vis-à-vis Russia. Also，it denotes an unmitigated strategic “China-balancing” posture. The aggravation of EU’s internal division and EU-US estrangement dovetails with the strategic interest of Moscow. Nevertheless，the outlook of the Paris-Moscow embrace remains clouded.

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