Abstract:Global crude oil trade has undergone profound changes in recent years. The total volume of crude oil trade continues to rise and its center keeps moving eastward. In 2019，the total volume of global crude oil trade climbed to 46.8 million barrels per day （mbd），with a year-on-year increase of 1.35 mbd. Crude oil imports in the Asia Pacific region have continued to rise，and China maintained its position as the world’s largest importer of crude oil. Under the influence of OPEC’s production cuting and US sanctions on Iranian oil，the market share of Middle East has declined. Meanwhile，with the rapid growth of US shale production and takeaway capacity，US crude exports have increased significantly. The global crude oil trade pattern has been adjusted，and the competition among oil-producing countries for Asia-Pacific and other target markets has become more intense. In 2020，the world’s newly added refining capacity will mainly come from the east of Suez，and crude oil trade center will continue to move eastward. Against the background of low oil prices，the US crude production may end up the rapid growth. In addition，the implementation of the IMO 2020 regulations will also have impact on crude oil trade，refineries tend to increase their input of low surfur crude. In the medium-long term，the Middle East is still the world’s most important crude oil export region，but its market share tends to decline. The Americas will become the main source of new crude oil supply，and its importance in global crude oil exports becomes increasingly prominent. Due to geopolitical disruptions and rising global trade protectionism，the uncertainty of crude oil trade will increase.
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