2019年国际石油市场回顾与2020年展望

Abstract:In 2019，global economic growth reached a record low in the past decade. The increase in oil demand was much lower than expected. However，as OPEC+ started a new round of production cuts and the United States imposed sanctions against Iran，Venezuela and other countries，crude oil price fluctuated with a rising trend，though the average level is still lower than 2018. Entering 2020，the COVID-19 pandemic dragged the global macro economy into contraction. Global oil demand shrank significantly，far more than the last financial crisis. The new OPEC+ agreement is expected to help ease the surplus of the global oil market. In the first half of 2020，the global outbreak of COVID-19 caused an epic shock to global oil demand and induced global oil stocks risk to hit tanks top. In the second half of 2020，with the global epidemic fading，the demand will gradually improve. With OPEC+ cutting productions，the crude oil price is expected to recover to $40-50/bbl again. In general，the international oil price of 2020 will be in lower level with the volatility moving sharply.

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