2019年我国成品油市场供需现状及展望

Abstract:Affected by many factors，such as the slowdown of macro-economic growth，the upgrading of environmental protection，the marketization reform of oil and gas industry and the change of international political situation，the domestic consumption structure of refined oil keeps changing in 2019. In general，compared with the high-speed growth during the 12th Five Year Plan period，domestic refined oil consumption has returned to the middle and low-speed growth range. Due to the decline of automobile production and sales，the diversification of travel modes and the increasingly mature development of alternative energy，gasoline consumption keeps a low-speed growth. Affected by the slow macroeconomic recovery，upgrading of industrial structure and high pressure of environmental protection policies，it is difficult for diesel consumption to improve substantially. The improvement of residents’ income level and quality of life，as well as the rapid development of express logistics industry，have driven the growth of air passenger and freight demand，as a result consumption of jet fuel maintains rapid growth potential. IMO 2020 sulfur restriction order brings new growth opportunities for low sulfur fuel oil market. But the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 will bring about disruptive effects on global economy and international and domestic demand of finished oil products in short-term. Since the domestic oversupply has become normal，the marketization reform of oil and gas industry will speed up and the overall profit of the industry will be further compressed. With the rapid rise of digital economy and the increasingly mature integration with traditional industries，it is possible for the oil and gas industry to change its inherent business model and cultivate new growth momentum.

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