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2018年巴西内外发展形势评估——变化中的巴西

作者:杨首国 刘婉儿 出版日期:2020年01月 报告页数:25 页 报告大小: 报告字数:26698 字 所属丛书:巴西黄皮书 所属图书:巴西发展报告(2019) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2018年,巴西政局基本稳定,经济实现有限复苏,但特梅尔作为“过渡政治人物”,其力推的结构性改革受阻,国内腐败、贫困、暴力犯罪等“顽疾”无明显改善,导致特梅尔政府以极低的民意支持率结束任期。在决定巴西下一步发展方向的关键大选中,号称“热带特朗普”的博索纳罗凭借反传统、反精英口号异军突起,一举登上总统宝座,其政治民粹主义、经济自由主义、社会保守主义、外交亲美右倾的政策倾向对巴西传统政治格局形成冲击,亦对巴西内外发展产生重要影响。2019年博索纳... 展开

文章摘要:2018年,巴西政局基本稳定,经济实现有限复苏,但特梅尔作为“过渡政治人物”,其力推的结构性改革受阻,国内腐败、贫困、暴力犯罪等“顽疾”无明显改善,导致特梅尔政府以极低的民意支持率结束任期。在决定巴西下一步发展方向的关键大选中,号称“热带特朗普”的博索纳罗凭借反传统、反精英口号异军突起,一举登上总统宝座,其政治民粹主义、经济自由主义、社会保守主义、外交亲美右倾的政策倾向对巴西传统政治格局形成冲击,亦对巴西内外发展产生重要影响。2019年博索纳罗上任以来,着手实施一系列改革新政,但其部分激进理念与国内现实脱节,遭到传统建制派及利益集团牵制,在一定程度上不得不回归理性、务实,未来其改革能走多远有待观察。2018年,中巴经贸关系继续保持发展势头,双边贸易额创新高,投资领域不断拓宽,凸显两国经济具有高度互补性与强劲合作动力,中巴合作不断深化的大方向不会因右翼政府上台而发生根本改变。

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Abstract:In 2018,Brazil’s domestic political situation remained basically stable and the economy has continued to recover slowly. However,Temer was widely regarded as a “transitional political figure”,the structural reforms that he had pursued were hindered. Some “chronic diseases”,such as corruption,poverty and violent crimes,have not been improved significantly. Temer’s government ended its term with a extremely low approval rati... 展开

Abstract:In 2018,Brazil’s domestic political situation remained basically stable and the economy has continued to recover slowly. However,Temer was widely regarded as a “transitional political figure”,the structural reforms that he had pursued were hindered. Some “chronic diseases”,such as corruption,poverty and violent crimes,have not been improved significantly. Temer’s government ended its term with a extremely low approval rating. Bolsonaro,the “Trump of the Tropics”,scored a resounding victory in presidential election with anti-tradition and anti-elite rhetoric. As the combination of populism,economic liberalism,social conservatism and unabashedly pro-American stance,Bolsonaro’s rise marks a radical shift for traditional political structure of Brazil. During the first three months in office,the new president has been implementing a series of policy reforms. But some of his radical ideas,which are incompatible with the political and economic realities,have been restrained by pro-establishment figures and interest groups. It’s expected that rationality and political pragmatism will return to a certain extent. In 2018,China-Brazil economic relationship was marked by unstoppable growth. Bilateral trade hit historic high,and cooperation areas have been continuously expanded,highlighting the economic complementarity and strong momentum for cooperation between the two countries. Sino-Brazilian relations are now and will likely continue to be promising in Bolsonaro administration.

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作者简介

杨首国:杨首国,中国现代国际关系研究院拉美研究所所长、研究员。

刘婉儿:刘婉儿,中国现代国际关系研究院拉美研究所实习研究员,主要研究方向为巴西及拉美综合研究。