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大变局:小多边主义回归与大国在印度洋战略竞争

作者:朱翠萍 出版日期:2023年04月 报告页数:30 页 报告大小: 报告字数:30829 字 所属丛书:印度洋地区蓝皮书 所属图书:印度洋地区发展报告(2022) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2022年,新冠肺炎疫情与乌克兰危机两大事件叠加,对世界政治与经济格局演变产生了深远影响,不仅导致世界经济复苏压力倍增,而且引致大国在印太地区的地缘战略竞争不断加剧。与此同时,美国主导的小多边主义回归,试图以更加灵活的方式维护美国主导的霸权秩序并制衡中国不断上升的影响力。作为战略工具,美国构建的小多边主义虽然在军事安全领域具有很强的灵活性,也因具有克服“集体行动困境”的优点而能够为塑造霸权发挥作用,并能够从地缘政治维度对崛起国施加战略压力... 展开

文章摘要:2022年,新冠肺炎疫情与乌克兰危机两大事件叠加,对世界政治与经济格局演变产生了深远影响,不仅导致世界经济复苏压力倍增,而且引致大国在印太地区的地缘战略竞争不断加剧。与此同时,美国主导的小多边主义回归,试图以更加灵活的方式维护美国主导的霸权秩序并制衡中国不断上升的影响力。作为战略工具,美国构建的小多边主义虽然在军事安全领域具有很强的灵活性,也因具有克服“集体行动困境”的优点而能够为塑造霸权发挥作用,并能够从地缘政治维度对崛起国施加战略压力。但是,小多边主义的局限性在于无法解决实力结构变化下美国主导地区秩序的合法性和有效性问题,更难以通过展现其制度建设能力和经济规则优势而获得地区层面的普遍认同。无论如何,由于小多边主义的回归,印太语境的经济属性被弱化并逐渐转向安全属性,这在一定程度上给印度洋安全局势与该地区主要行为体之间的互动关系增添了诸多变数。作为环印度洋最具经济实力并追求“独一无二”影响力的国家,印度在小多边主义影响之下的安全需求上升,不仅意欲借助美国主导的“印太战略”和“四国机制”等小多边主义谋求战略收益以及对冲中国在南亚和印度洋不断上升的影响力,而且还尝试在印度洋构建印度-澳大利

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Abstract:In 2022,two major events,the Covid-19 epidemic and the Ukrainian crisis,have overlapped and have had a profound impact on the evolution of the world’s political and economic landscape. This has not only led to more tremendous pressures on the world economic recovery,but also intensified geo-strategic competition among major powers in the Indo-Pacific region. At the same time,the return to “minilateralism” led by the U.S. is at... 展开

Abstract:In 2022,two major events,the Covid-19 epidemic and the Ukrainian crisis,have overlapped and have had a profound impact on the evolution of the world’s political and economic landscape. This has not only led to more tremendous pressures on the world economic recovery,but also intensified geo-strategic competition among major powers in the Indo-Pacific region. At the same time,the return to “minilateralism” led by the U.S. is attempting to maintain the U.S.-led hegemonic order in a more flexible manner and to counterbalance China’s rising influence. As a strategic tool,minilateralism with highly flexible in the military-security arena as well as the advantage of overcoming the “collective action dilemma”,can not only play roles in shape hegemonic power but also exert strategic pressure on rising powers from the geopolitical dimension. However,the limitation of minilateralism is that it cannot solve the problem of both legitimacy and effectiveness of U.S.-led regional order under the changing power structure,and it is even more difficult to gain universal acceptance at the regional level by demonstrating its ability to build institutions and economic rules. In any case,due to the return of minilateralism,the economic function in the Indo-Pacific context has been weakened and gradually shifted to the economic dimension of involution and military security dimension of internal conflict,which to a certain extent also adds another variable to the security situation in the Indian Ocean and the interaction between the major characters in the region. As the most economically powerful country around the Indian Ocean,India strives to pursue unique influence and its security needs are rising under the influence of minilateralism. India not only seek strategic gains depend upon miniilateralism such as “Indo-Pacific Strategy” and the quad in order to hedge against China’s rising influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean,but also attempt to build its minilateralism sucha as India-Australia-France and India-Australia-Indonesia in the Indian Ocean. The undercurrents of minilateralism in the Indian Ocean are profoundly influencing the evolution of the security situation in the Indian Ocean and will certainly continue to intensify the strategic competition among the major actors in the Indian Ocean region. India’s strategic choice in the Indian Ocean region is also an important variable affecting the game and future trend of strategic competition in the region.

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作者简介

朱翠萍:朱翠萍,云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心教授、博士生导师。