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德国经济与公共财政状况评述(2022)

作者:胡子南 出版日期:2023年11月 报告页数:24 页 报告大小: 报告字数:24792 字 所属丛书:德国蓝皮书 所属图书:德国发展报告(2023) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2022年,德国经济形势好于预期,国内生产总值增长1.8%。德国经济部门表现各异,消费服务行业实现复苏,制造业和建筑业表现不佳。德国私人消费强劲,已经基本恢复到疫情前水平。2022年,德国通胀率升至创纪录的6.9%,远高于德国历史平均水平。德国劳动力市场表现强劲,但长期来看面临劳动力短缺问题。德国对外贸易盈余大幅收窄,德国制造业面临更严峻的挑战。德国企业整体破产率高于上年,不过仍处于历史低位。为刺激经济增长、应对不利因素挑战,德国采取了一系列有针对性... 展开

文章摘要:2022年,德国经济形势好于预期,国内生产总值增长1.8%。德国经济部门表现各异,消费服务行业实现复苏,制造业和建筑业表现不佳。德国私人消费强劲,已经基本恢复到疫情前水平。2022年,德国通胀率升至创纪录的6.9%,远高于德国历史平均水平。德国劳动力市场表现强劲,但长期来看面临劳动力短缺问题。德国对外贸易盈余大幅收窄,德国制造业面临更严峻的挑战。德国企业整体破产率高于上年,不过仍处于历史低位。为刺激经济增长、应对不利因素挑战,德国采取了一系列有针对性的财政政策:连续三年暂停“债务刹车”、额外编制1000亿欧元国防开支、优先支持德国能源转型、修订《就业法》并实施移民政策改革、接连推出多轮通胀纾困措施以及在欧盟监管框架下帮扶企业。2023年,德国依然面临通胀高企、欧洲中央银行加息以及债务负担加重等问题,经济前景不容乐观。

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Abstract:In 2022,the German economy performed better than expected,with GDP growing by 1.8%. The performance of the German economy was mixed,with recovery in consumer services but poor performance in manufacturing and construction. Private consumption in Germany is strong and has almost recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation rose to a record 6.9% in 2022,well above Germany’s historical average. Germany has a strong labor market and a... 展开

Abstract:In 2022,the German economy performed better than expected,with GDP growing by 1.8%. The performance of the German economy was mixed,with recovery in consumer services but poor performance in manufacturing and construction. Private consumption in Germany is strong and has almost recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation rose to a record 6.9% in 2022,well above Germany’s historical average. Germany has a strong labor market and a chronic shortage of workers. Its foreign trade surplus narrowed sharply,and German manufacturing is facing tougher challenges. German corporate bankruptcies as a whole were higher than a year ago,though they remained historically low. In order to stimulate economic growth and cope with the challenges of adverse factors,Germany adopted a series of targeted fiscal policies:suspending the constitutional “debt brake” for the third consecutive year,budgeting an extra €100 billion in defense spending,giving priority to supporting Germany’s energy transition,amending the employment law and implementing a reform of the immigration policy. It launched successive measures to mitigate the influence of high inflation and helped enterprises within the confines of the EU regulatory framework. In 2023,Germany will still face high inflation,higher interest rates from the European Central Bank and a growing debt burden.

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作者简介

胡子南:胡子南,经济学博士,同济大学德国问题研究所/欧盟研究所助理教授,主要研究领域为跨境投资、国际金融、欧洲经济。