新冠肺炎疫情冲击下的拉丁美洲和加勒比地区经济形势分析与展望

Abstract:This analysis found that because the local economy had been in recession and low-speed growth for 6 consecutive years during 2015-2019 before the outbreak of the pandemic，the fiscal deficits and overall debt of almost all countries have been in an elevated level already. In order to deal with the challenges and difficulties occurred in 2020，the fiscal support undoubtedly increased government’s expenditures while public revenues decreased in the same time due to the restrict measures，further pressed the existing high-level fiscal deficits and debt burdens. Under this circumstance，the space for fiscal policy adjustments will be extremely limited in 2021 to achieve economic recovery and growth. At the same time，the relatively loose monetary policies implemented since the outbreak of the pandemic may also begin to be tightened under inflationary pressures，that could be another huge challenge to the region’s economic recovery and growth.It can be expected that the economic growth unevenness existed until today among the countries in the region will not only be reflected in the economic recession but also during the economic recovery in 2021 and the future. Many countries may postpone their recovery completely out of the recession and return to the previous level of pandemic until 2022 or even later.

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