Research Background and Significance
The "the Belt and Road" runs through Asia, Europe and Africa, and is committed to maintaining the global free trade system and an open world economy. It aims to promote the orderly and free flow of economic factors, efficient allocation of resources and deep integration of markets. It is an inclusive development initiative with the nature of "global public goods" proposed by the Chinese government to adapt to changes in the global development pattern and promote the transformation of its own development model. The "the Belt and Road" involves many fields such as economy, politics, diplomacy and security. It is not only an extension of the trade route, but also an extension of national interest boundaries and security boundaries, greatly expanding the connotation and extension of China's overseas interests.
Overseas interests, as an extraterritorial extension of national interests, are an important component of the overall national interests. From a content perspective, overseas interests can be divided into overseas political interests, overseas economic interests, overseas cultural interests, overseas security interests, etc. Among them, overseas economic interests generally include domestic interests involved in foreign trade, foreign investment, international financial cooperation, and international energy and resource supply. The "the Belt and Road Initiative" focuses on "policy communication, facility connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and people to people connectivity", of which "facility connectivity, unimpeded trade, and financial integration" all involve China's overseas economic interests. Overseas economic interests are the inevitable result of China's integration into the global economic system, comprehensive development of international cooperation, and promotion of interest exchange and interaction between countries and regions. In the context of the continuous in-depth development of the "the Belt and Road", in-depth analysis of the evolution and expansion of China's overseas economic interests and active exploration of the mode and path of safeguarding overseas economic interests are of great significance for promoting and protecting the overall national interests.
II. Development Status and Problems Faced
(1) Development Status
The "the Belt and Road Initiative" actively promotes the docking and coupling of development strategies with countries along the Belt and Road, and deeply explores the development potential and cooperation potential among neighboring countries, across regions and even across the globe. Although it has not been long since the proposal was put forward and implemented, fruitful results have been achieved in carrying out cross-border connectivity, promoting economic and trade exchanges and interactions, and promoting international production capacity cooperation. While China contributes its strength and solutions to stabilize the global economic situation and solve global development problems, it also continuously expands the stock, flow, and increment of China's overseas economic interests, and presents new development trends and directions. Mainly manifested in the following aspects.
From a breadth perspective, the scope of China's overseas economic interests is more extensive
According to the trend of the "the Belt and Road", the "Silk Road Economic Belt" mainly involves Central Asian countries, and gradually covers and radiates to Central and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, West Asia, North Africa and other wider regions; The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road extends from Southeast Asian countries to regions such as the Indian Ocean, the Middle East, Africa, and the Mediterranean. The "the Belt and Road" can be called the longest and most extensive economic corridor in the world, covering about 4.4 billion people, accounting for about 63% of the global population; The total economic output is about 21 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 29% of the global economic output. In terms of breadth, the coverage of China's overseas economic interests has been expanding with the promotion of the "the Belt and Road".
From a deeper perspective, the content of China's overseas economic interests is more diverse
In terms of major transportation infrastructure, the "the Belt and Road" projects in many countries along the line, such as roads, railways, ports, oil pipelines, bridges, power transmission networks, optical cable transmission, have been launched or put into operation successively; In terms of foreign investment and trade, although the global economy and trade are weakening, China's economic and trade cooperation with countries along the "the Belt and Road" is still progressing steadily. In 2018 alone, China's trade with countries along the "the Belt and Road" accounted for 27.4% of China's import and export trade (see Figure 1); The turnover of foreign contracted projects of Chinese enterprises in countries along the "the Belt and Road" reached US $89.33 billion, accounting for 52% of the total foreign contracted projects in the same period. From infrastructure to investment and trade, from industrial layout to energy and resource supply, to financial cooperation and capital integration, the content of China's overseas economic interests continues to expand and become more diverse.
Figure 1 Proportion of import and export trade volume between China and countries along the "the Belt and Road" in China's import and export trade volume from 2011 to 2018
From a speed perspective, the growth of China's overseas economic interests is even more rapid
By the end of 2018, the "the Belt and Road" initiative had received responses from more than 100 countries and international organizations; It has signed 170 intergovernmental cooperation documents with countries and international organizations along the the Belt and Road; More than 130 bilateral and regional transportation agreements involving railways, highways, sea transportation, aviation, and postal services; Chinese enterprises have 113 economic and trade cooperation zones under construction in 46 countries along the "the Belt and Road", with a cumulative investment of US $42.14 billion, 4742 enterprises entering the zone, and a total output value of US $50.69 billion; By the end of 2017, a total of 10 Chinese banks had established 67 tier one institutions in 26 countries along the "the Belt and Road", including 39 branches, 17 subsidiaries and 8 representative offices. A number of data show that the "the Belt and Road" has accelerated the growth of China's overseas economic interests (see Table 1).
表1 “一带一路”沿线国家涉及中国海外经济利益一览
表1 “一带一路”沿线国家涉及中国海外经济利益一览 | ||
---|---|---|
设施联通 | 交通基础设施 | 已与“一带一路”沿线国家签署了130多个涉及铁路、公路、水运、民航、邮政的双边和区域运输协定 |
通信设施 | 信息通信设计、施工等企业服务沿线国家完成了大量信息通信网络建设项目,通信工程建设标准已逐步得到多个国家和地区的认可 | |
经贸合作 | 对外贸易 | 累计贸易额约为2.8万亿美元。仅2018年,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家货物贸易额达1.3万亿美元,占同期中国货物进出口总额的27.4% |
对外投资 | 累计对外直接投资超过700亿美元,对外承包工程累计签订合同额超过2万亿美元。仅2018年,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家对外直接投资达156.4亿美元,占同期对外直接投资总额的13%,新签承包工程合同额1257.8亿美元 | |
经贸合作区 | 在46个国家建设经贸合作区113个 | |
金融合作 | 亚投行 | 已为11个项目提供33亿美元贷款 |
丝路基金 | 已签约25个项目,承诺投资额超过82亿美元 | |
本币互换 | 与20多个国家和地区签署本币互换协议 | |
能源资源 | — | 与有关国家建立双边能源合作机制24项,签署能源领域合作文件100余份 |
注:除非另有说明,本表中数据均为“一带一路”倡议提出和实施以来至2018年的数据。 | ||
资料来源:作者自行整理。 |
Table 1 List of China's overseas economic interests involved in countries along the "the Belt and Road"
(2) Facing problems
Countries along the "the Belt and Road" differ in political systems, development models, social humanities, security situation, etc., and their interest demands are also different. While China's overseas economic interests are rapidly growing, it also faces some urgent issues that need to be addressed.
1. The scope of overseas economic interests continues to expand, but the risk management ability is not strong
Many countries and regions along the "the Belt and Road" are affected by geopolitical, ethnic and religious factors, and belong to high-risk security zones. At present, China has not established a specialized agency to safeguard overseas (economic) interests. When overseas economic interests are threatened, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs takes the lead in handling them according to the procedures of diplomatic affairs, and the emergency affairs working group is temporarily established by the competent department involved in the incident. This model of protecting overseas economic interests has certain flaws: the lack of a specialized agency responsible for it leads to unclear division of labor, insufficient coordination among departments, and may result in multiple management or management gaps; The lack of a guarantee system or regular mechanism leads to weak risk management capabilities, and it is also unable to provide reference and experience for the handling of similar affairs in the future.
2. Overseas economic interests continue to deepen, but there is a lack of experience in global governance operations
With the deepening of globalization and the acceleration of China's "going global" pace, China is turning from a follower of globalization to an advocate of globalization. The proposal of the "the Belt and Road" is the most powerful proof. However, due to historical and practical limitations, compared to developed countries' ability to align with international rules and affairs, China still needs more experience to evolve from a follower and participant of global economic rules to a rule maker; Compared to developed countries' accumulation in effectively supplying and promoting international public goods, cross-border business management, international discourse power, and voting power, China still needs more practice to expand and govern globally.
3. The expansion speed of overseas economic benefits continues to accelerate, but the sharing and return rate is not high
Through the "the Belt and Road", China has shown the world a more responsible image of a major country and a more open and inclusive attitude, and has also created a broad range of overseas economic interests with rich content and rapid development for itself. However, in contrast, due to the large amount and long period of investment in investment projects in countries along the "the Belt and Road", especially projects focusing on infrastructure construction and infrastructure engineering, and the backward infrastructure construction of many countries along the "Belt and Road", the single industrial structure and poor domestic economic conditions, many investment projects are facing problems such as large stalls, lack of stamina, stranded in the middle, difficult to offset investment costs, and the inability to recover loans normally, resulting in uncertain safety and profitability, low sharing and return rates.
Three policy recommendations
(1) Establishing a management system for safeguarding overseas economic interests
The maintenance of overseas economic interests involves multiple aspects such as politics, economy, diplomacy, military, etc. The management and coordination work is relatively complex, requiring strong organizational leadership and comprehensive top-down coordination. First, we should focus on the "the Belt and Road", integrate the resources of the economy, commerce, finance, diplomacy, security, national defense and other sectors, establish a unified and joint overseas (economic) interests protection special agency, and carry out unified deployment, leadership and management for the maintenance of overseas economic interests. Secondly, we need to clarify the relationship between top-level design and local management, strengthen the construction of semi official and other institutions, and form a multi-level pattern for safeguarding and managing overseas economic interests. Thirdly, we need to rely on domestic resources and build a coordinated overseas network system that integrates embassies abroad, overseas chambers of commerce, overseas Chinese funded enterprises, overseas Chinese organizations, and non-governmental organizations.
(2) Improve the operational mechanism for safeguarding overseas economic interests
To directly and quickly safeguard overseas economic interests, it is necessary to streamline and establish a smooth and efficient operational mechanism. First, for the part along the "the Belt and Road" that involves the security of China's overseas economic interests, strengthen the overall capacity building including risk demonstration, early warning, coordination and assessment, build a global unified risk management platform for domestic and overseas institutions, and improve the national risk early warning and emergency mechanism. The second is to establish overseas comprehensive support bases. Select a number of important nodes along the "the Belt and Road" with convenient geographical location, stop supply and material financing, and build a strategic material base for strategic material support, combat readiness supply, equipment maintenance, escort and evacuation of overseas Chinese. Thirdly, we need to establish an overseas strategic support system. Strengthen the construction of naval escort fleets, actively participate in United Nations peacekeeping operations, gradually enhance the overseas operational capabilities of the navy and air force, and form a well planned, coordinated, and fully functional overseas strategic support and guarantee system.
(3) Establish a unique model for safeguarding overseas economic interests
The maintenance of overseas economic interests under the "the Belt and Road" initiative is a systematic project, which needs to break through traditional thinking, highlight Chinese wisdom, and form a unique model for the maintenance of overseas economic interests. One is to consider from the perspective of the long-term development of the country, incorporating the legislative work of safeguarding overseas (economic) interests into the country's foreign strategy, ensuring that there is a legal basis for "going global", and also making the work of safeguarding overseas economic interests systematic. The second is to establish a "territorial partnership" relationship for the security of overseas economic interests, realizing the localization of management talents, which not only improves the effectiveness and quality of safeguarding overseas economic interests, but also establishes a good image for China in the international community. The third is to fully integrate and deeply participate in various global governance mechanisms, enhance the discourse power of rules, effectively utilize the international rule system, and actively explore innovative models of new types of national cooperation and global governance.