Introduction

After World War II, the changes in industrial structure in East Asia were widely recognized as the embodiment of the Wild Goose Formation theory in practice. The "Wild Goose Formation Model" is a dynamic industrial hierarchy transfer and transmission model. Since the 1950s, the industrial transfer in East Asia has been in a "geese formation model" with Japan as the leader, the "Four Little Dragons" of East Asia as the body geese, some ASEAN countries as tail geese, and other emerging developing countries as extended geese. Industrial transfer generally starts from Japan, passes through the "Four Little Dragons" of East Asia, and finally extends to developing countries and regions in East Asia such as the four ASEAN countries and China. The successive industrial development patterns formed between the industrial transfer areas and the transferred areas in the East Asian region to some extent explain the international division of labor pattern among countries at different stages of economic development, as well as the industrial transmission and transfer pattern caused by the dynamic changes in comparative advantages of each country. The transfer of industries between countries, corresponding to a specific country, is essentially industrial upgrading. The successive inheritance characteristics of industrial upgrading among numerous countries in the East Asian region depict the "geese formation model".

In the past, there were many methods for studying industrial upgrading, and from a measurement perspective, there were mainly two methods. One is the analysis of industrial structure, such as the proportion of the three industries, the proportion of light and heavy industries, the proportion of various industries, and the analysis of the proportion of customized industries. From the perspective of industrial structure, industrial upgrading mainly focuses on the proportion of certain industries at different stages of development, as well as the impact of the development of such industries on economic growth. The second is value chain analysis, which analyzes the value-added status of products at different links and their distribution among different entities from the entire input-output process. From the perspective of the value chain, industrial upgrading mainly focuses on upgrading from the low-end of the value chain to the high-end. However, these two methods have certain issues. Firstly, the method of analyzing industrial structure is a traditional approach that often faces confusion in its application, such as the fact that the proportion of tertiary industries in some places cannot truly reflect the local economic development situation; Some industry classifications (strategic emerging industries, emerging service industries, high-end manufacturing industries, etc.) cannot directly obtain statistical data and need to be constructed with other indicators; Inconsistent changes in statistical caliber result in incomparable data. Additionally, value chain analysis cannot directly obtain statistical data. Analysis needs to be conducted through input-output and other surveys.

Therefore, this article will draw on a new theory of industrial upgrading - product space - to analyze industrial upgrading, allowing us to more intuitively see the process of industrial upgrading in various countries in the East Asian region, and more clearly understand the characteristics of industrial upgrading among countries in the East Asian region. At the same time, it also helps to further explore the important internal mechanisms that affect national industrial upgrading. In addition, as China gradually integrates into the East Asian production network system, its international division of labor status has significantly improved, becoming an emerging force in the East Asian region and increasing its influence on the East Asian regional production network. Therefore, studying the issue of industrial upgrading among East Asian countries is of great significance to China. Moreover, in the context of China's proposal and promotion of the "the Belt and Road" initiative, the study of industrial upgrading among countries in East Asia can not only provide a basis for the concrete realization of the "the Belt and Road" initiative, but also be of great significance for China to strengthen economic cooperation with surrounding regions, promote common development and achieve common prosperity. This article examines the international sub regions in East Asia, including East Asia and Southeast Asia, which are heavily influenced by Chinese culture. To implement the "the Belt and Road" initiative, cooperation with East Asia is very important, and Southeast Asia is the focus of the "the Belt and Road" initiative. Southeast Asia is geographically adjacent to China and shares cultural similarities. Many Southeast Asian countries have similar historical and cultural backgrounds to Chinese culture, and there are also a large number of overseas Chinese in Southeast Asia, which is an important resource for international cooperation.

Based on this, this article selects six representative countries in East Asia, namely Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam, and applies product space theory to study their industrial upgrading, in order to explore the internal mechanisms of national industrial upgrading. After analyzing the industrial development dynamics among East Asian countries, further analyze the implications of the East Asian path for China's regional industrial upgrading.

Theory and Application of Product Space

Hidalgo officially proposed and elaborated on the concept of product space. The product space theory re examines the impact of a country or region's initial capability endowment on the path of industrial upgrading from the perspective of dynamic evolution of comparative advantage. The product space theory holds that a product is a carrier of knowledge and capabilities in a country or region, which itself contains various factor endowment information of the economy, including the input of factors required for product production, as well as the collection of all production conditions including corresponding organizational methods, social systems, and other external environments. The similarity in production capacity between products determines whether product transformation or industrial upgrading can be smoothly achieved. In this sense, comparative advantage refers to product comparative advantage or capability based comparative advantage, which essentially reflects the endowment of production capacity. The essence of economic development and structural transformation in a country or region is the process in which local enterprises concentrate on producing locally advantageous products and learn and accumulate production capacity endowments. Different countries will have different future evolutionary paths due to their current industrial structures.

Figure 1 shows the export product space constructed by Hidalgo et al. based on the International Trade Standard Classification (SITC) from 1998 to 2000. Each point represents a product, and the size of the point represents the trade amount of that product. The line connecting the points and the degree of closeness between them represent their proximity. By calculating the probability of any two products with comparative advantages being exported simultaneously, a proximity matrix between all products is constructed, and a product space map is generated using complex network methods. The distribution of product spatial structure presents a typical feature of dense core areas and sparse edge areas. Among them, capital and technology intensive products such as machinery and instruments are located at the center of the product space, while chemical products are located near the center. These products are closely connected and together form the "core" of the product space; Other types of products are located on the "periphery" of the product space, mostly in labor-intensive and resource intensive industries, with the outermost areas being fisheries, animals, and tropical crops.

The product space can be understood using the metaphorical image of a monkey jumping from a tree. If you imagine a product as a tree, all products are a forest. Enterprises developing various products in a country are like monkeys living on different trees. Industrial upgrading means moving from areas with relatively poor forests and scarce fruits to areas with abundant fruits. This means that monkeys must jump to distant places, which means reconfiguring manpower, materials, mechanisms, and capital for new product directions. Product space means that industrial upgrading does not happen naturally. A company or a country is likely to be locked in a barren wasteland for a long time, despite the desire to upgrade, lacking the path and conditions for upgrading. Therefore, for East Asian countries, what kind of industrial upgrading path does the "geese formation model" imply in terms of industrial transfer and structural changes? How did these countries leap forward in the "forest" of industries? What insights can this provide to other countries? What are the implications for China to promote the "the Belt and Road" initiative and industrial cooperation with countries in the region?

图1 全球产品空间

Figure 1 Global Product Space

Therefore, this article uses product space theory to analyze the "geese formation model" of industrial structure changes among East Asian countries. For the convenience of research, this article takes into account factors such as resources, location, environment, and culture, and removes economies with small areas and populations, selecting six countries: Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Harvard University has established an open specialized website to provide various data and graphics related to product space, as well as application guidance. The data and information used in this article are sourced from here.

The spatial characteristics and dynamic changes of products in three East Asian countries

（1） Product spatial characteristics of East Asian countries

From the perspective of product spatial patterns in East Asian countries, Japan has a very dense distribution of product space, followed by South Korea and Thailand, which have relatively dense product spaces. Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam have relatively sparse product spaces. In addition, products with comparative advantages in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam are mostly distributed at the edges of the product space. Japan's products with comparative advantages cover the center of the product space, while South Korea also has many products covering the center of the product space. Thailand also has many products located in the center of the product space.

This roughly indicates that there are several levels of industrial structure or upgrading among East Asian countries. The first level is Japan, which has the ability to produce the most complex products and its comparative advantage lies in producing products with high technological content; The second level is South Korea, which has the ability to produce many highly complex products; The third level includes countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc. Relatively speaking, there are not many more complex products that can be produced, and more comparative advantage products are relatively less complex labor-intensive products.

From the perspective of product space in several major countries, a major characteristic of the industrial structure of East Asian countries is that almost all countries have comparative advantages in light industry, textile and clothing, as well as electronic products. The commonality between these two categories of products is that they are both labor-intensive industries. This characteristic is also an important feature of the industrial structure and its upgrading and evolution in East Asia.

（2） Dynamic analysis of comparative advantages of East Asian countries

The product space reflects the spatial structure of industrial competitiveness and visualizes research. By drawing the product space of different countries in different periods, we can observe and compare the changes in industrial structure, and intuitively reflect the product space and industrial upgrading. If we dynamically observe the changes in a country's product space, we can see how a country's comparative advantage shifts from one type of product to another, that is, we can observe the specific product path of a country's industrial upgrading. If we display the product space of East Asian countries in different eras, we can see the evolution process of their comparative advantage industries, that is, the process of industrial upgrading. By comparing and analyzing the product space and its evolution process in different countries, some basic laws of industrial upgrading can be discovered. These patterns may be further validation of existing knowledge in the past, i.e. revalidation of the "geese formation pattern" in East Asia, or they may be new discoveries or more specific understandings. By summarizing historical patterns, experience support can be provided for the industrial upgrading of developing countries.

1. Characteristics of the "Wild Goose Formation Model" of Industrial Transfer and Structural Changes in East Asia

To further analyze the characteristics of the "flying geese pattern" of industrial transfer and structural changes among East Asian countries, this article compares and analyzes the evolution process of comparative advantage industries in some typical countries. Choose Japan as the "leading goose" in the geese formation, South Korea as the "body goose" representing the "Four Asian Tigers", and Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries as representatives of the "tail geese". Based on the consideration of data availability, only the approximately 20-year change process from 1995 to 2014 is considered.

As the leading goose, Japan's product spatial structure exhibits the most advanced features. There is a clear structural difference between it and the "body goose" representing South Korea. Generally speaking, there are many similarities in the product spatial structure between South Korea in 2005 and Japan in 1995, as well as between South Korea in 2014 and Japan in 2010. This indicates that there is a "flying geese pattern" of industrial upgrading between Japan and South Korea, with Japan in a relatively advanced position and South Korea in a relatively backward position. However, overall, the time gap in industrial development level between the two countries is narrowing.

In the past 20 years, a major focus of industrial transfer and structural changes in East Asian countries has been the rapid industrialization and industrial upgrading process of some ASEAN countries as "tail geese". In detail, there are many similarities in the spatial distribution of products between Vietnam in 2014, Malaysia in 2014, and South Korea in 1995, which roughly indicates that Vietnam, Malaysia, and other countries upgraded their national industries to the level of South Korea in 1995 in 2014. There are many similarities in the spatial distribution of products between Thailand in 2005 and South Korea in 2000, which roughly indicates that Thailand's national industry was upgraded to the level of South Korea in 2000 in 2005; There are many similarities in the spatial distribution of products between Thailand in 2014 and South Korea in 2005, indicating that Thailand's national industrial upgrading in 2014 roughly reached the level of South Korea in 2005. The above indicates that as a "body goose" country, South Korea has a "goose formation model" of industrial upgrading with "tail goose" countries, with the former in a relatively early position and the latter in a relatively late position. Furthermore, if "tail goose" countries such as Thailand and Vietnam can successfully learn from the development experience of developing countries such as South Korea, constantly discover new opportunities, and achieve continuous evolution of comparative advantages, it is possible to continuously achieve industrial upgrading.

The labor resources in East Asia are relatively abundant, and there are significant differences in economic development levels among countries or regions. There are developed economies such as Japan, as well as less developed countries or regions such as Vietnam and Malaysia. Overall, there are strong differences in industrial structure and evolution, with many industrial levels and obvious gradient differences between countries or regions; In addition, the endowment of production factors varies among countries or regions, leading to differences in the prices of labor and other production factors in East Asia. This results in gradient differences in production costs and comparative advantages for labor-intensive industries in different countries or regions of East Asia, thereby promoting the transfer of labor-intensive industries between regions.

In the past decade, the international competitiveness of East Asian regional industries has been continuously enhanced. Japan still maintains a competitive advantage in high-tech industries. The "Four Asian Tigers" have begun to form strong competitiveness in fields such as steel, petrochemicals, and automobiles, and have the ability to compete with traditional advantageous industrial countries such as the United States, Japan, and Germany. Some high-tech industries in South Korea and Singapore, the semiconductor industry in Taiwan, China, and the mobile communication industry in South Korea are among the world's leading industries. In addition, while maintaining rapid economic development, China has become the world's largest manufacturing country and a major exporter. China has an increasing number of products with comparative advantages, including those with high complex production capacity requirements in the central area of the product space.

2. Changes in the industrial structure of "leading geese"

From 1995 to 2015, the changes in Japan's comparative advantage in exports were not very significant. Figure 2 shows a comparison of the product space in Japan in 1995 and 2014. The main changes are as follows: firstly, the denser part of the comparative advantage products near the center has become significantly denser (Region 1); secondly, the more obvious changes are the increase in chemical and metallurgical products with comparative advantages in the upper right corner (Region 2); Thirdly, a more noticeable change is the significant reduction in the number of electronic information products with comparative advantages in the lower left corner (region 3). Outside of the above three regions, the originally sparse points are still sparse, and the originally dense points are still dense, with little change, belonging to regions where the comparative advantage is still not obvious.

图2 日本1995年和2014年产品空间对比

Figure 2 Comparison of Product Space in Japan in 1995 and 2014

图3 韩国1995年和2014年产品空间对比

Figure 3: Product Space Comparison between South Korea in 1995 and 2014

3. Changes in the industrial structure of "body geese"

From 1995 to 2015, there was a significant change in South Korea's comparative advantage in exports. Figure 3 shows a comparison of South Korea's product space in 1995 and 2014. The entire product space reflects changes in the industrial structure, and the basic process can be summarized as "upgrading and exiting". The previously sparse area near the center in the upper left corner has become noticeably denser (Region 1), with the most noticeable decrease being the significant reduction of a large number of light industry textile and clothing products with comparative advantages on the right side (Region 2), and only a slight decrease in electronic dominated advantageous products on the lower left corner (Region 3). Observing the evolution trends of various products in each year of the three regions mentioned above can provide a detailed description of South Korea's industrial upgrading process. Outside of the three regions mentioned above, the originally sparse points remain sparse with little change, belonging to areas where comparative advantages are still not obvious.

Below, this article provides a further detailed analysis of South Korea's industrial upgrading process. South Korea belongs to the "body goose" category in both development level and industrial structure in East Asia. Analyzing it can help understand how a relatively underdeveloped economy achieves industrial upgrading, which has great reference and reference value for more backward countries. Generally speaking, based on the characteristics of product space changes in South Korea from 1995 to 2014, it is mainly manifested as the process of losing advantages in some industries (i.e. exit process), the process of generating new advantageous industries (i.e. upgrade process), and the process of maintaining advantages throughout the industry.

(1) Region 1: Upgrade process.

The region 2 shown in Figure 3 has comparative advantages, with 33 products in 1995, rising to 39 in 2000, 54 in 2005, 64 in 2010, and reaching 72 in 2014. There will be an increase of 6 species in the first 5 years, 15 species in the second 5 years, 10 species in the third 5 years, and 8 species in the following 4 years. This seems to indicate that starting industrial upgrading is very difficult, and only when accumulated to a certain extent can there be breakthroughs. Once the bottleneck is overcome, we will enter the fast lane.

Figure 3 shows the evolution process of comparative advantages in the region, and it can be clearly seen that upgrading is a long-term and gradual process, with some fluctuations in between. This reflects the continuous trial and error of enterprises and industries in market competition, accumulating experience and knowledge until a relatively stable comparative advantage pattern is formed.

From the specific products in the process of comparative advantage evolution, most of the various products have continuously developed and evolved on the basis of the original products with comparative advantages. Some of these products have gone through a trial and error process, and in terms of product spatial distribution, it is manifested as the diffusion of comparative advantages to adjacent products, making the products with comparative advantages in the region increasingly dense.

(2) Region 2: Exit process.

The region 2 shown in Figure 3 has a comparative advantage, with 62 products in 1995, decreasing to 49 in 2000, 30 remaining in 2005, and 21 remaining in 2014. From the evolution process of product comparative advantages in this region, it can be found that exit is also a long-term, gradual, and even slow process, and the structure will tend to stabilize in the later stage, with some products still maintaining comparative advantages. From the evolution trajectory of product comparative advantage over the past 20 years, clothing, shoes, and hats have quickly lost their competitive advantage, but textiles and clothing accessories, even as small as buttons and zippers, will still maintain their competitive advantage for a long time and have not been eliminated.

(3) Region 3: Always maintain an advantage.

The region 3 shown in Figure 3 has comparative advantages, with 47 products in 1995, 44 in 2000, 42 in 2005, and an average of 40 in 2010 and 2014. Compared to Region 1 and Region 2, there is not much change. From the evolution of the comparative advantage of products in this region, it can be clearly seen that the comparative advantage of products in this region has remained stable over the past 20 years. But a stable pattern does not mean that the industry has not upgraded. On the contrary, electronic information products in this region are one of the industries with the most obvious technological changes. The same product may be updated and replaced within two to three years, and new companies may replace existing ones, making international competition extremely fierce. South Korea's industrial upgrading in this field is reflected in its ability to keep up with global industrial trends and continuously adapt to new changes within existing fields.

4. Changes in the industrial structure of "tail geese"

From 1995 to 2015, Vietnam's comparative advantage in exports underwent significant changes, and overall, the number of products with comparative advantages increased significantly. Figure 4 compares the product space of Vietnam in 1995 and 2014, reflecting the changes in industrial structure. The most obvious increase is in the comparative advantage products of chemical and metallurgical industries in the upper right corner (region 1), and in the lower left corner, there is also a significant increase in advantageous products mainly focused on electronics (region 2); A large number of light industry textile and clothing products with comparative advantages on the right side have a relatively stable quantity (region 3). Outside of the three regions mentioned above, the originally sparse points remain sparse with little change, belonging to areas where comparative advantages are still not obvious. Observing the evolution trends of various products in each year of the three regions mentioned above can provide a detailed description of Vietnam's industrial upgrading process.

图4 越南1995年和2014年产品空间对比

Figure 4: Product Space Comparison between Vietnam in 1995 and 2014

5. Judging the industrial upgrading trend of the "tail goose" country

Through the exploration of the industrial structure and upgrading characteristics of East Asian countries in the previous text, it is found that the characteristics of the "geese formation model" are relatively typical, and the industrial development pattern between countries at different stages of economic development presents a succession of industrial forms. The future industrial upgrading direction of the "tail goose" countries, which are still in a relatively low gradient, can largely draw on the industrial upgrading path of the first developed countries. The industrial upgrading path of the first developed countries will become the future guidance for these countries.

For example, through the spatial distribution of products in Vietnam in 2014 and South Korea in 1995 (Figure 5), it can be found that the patterns of the two are basically similar. The areas where advantageous products are concentrated are very similar: first, there is a large number of light industry textile and clothing products with comparative advantages on the right side (area 1); The second advantage is the electronic dominated products in the lower left corner (area 3), while the rest of the product space is relatively sparse. The trend of product space changes in South Korea from 1995 to 2014 indicates the country's industrial upgrading path: firstly, the significant reduction of traditional light industry textile and clothing products with comparative advantages on the right side (Region 1); Secondly, there has been a significant increase in the number of intermediate chemical machinery products with comparative advantages (Region 2), while the dominant electronic products remain relatively stable (Region 3). Imagine if Vietnam can successfully learn from South Korea's development experience, it may follow South Korea's path to continuously evolve its comparative advantages and achieve industrial upgrading based on this foundation.

图5 越南与韩国产品空间比较

Figure 5 Comparison of Product Space between Vietnam and South Korea

The general path of industrial upgrading in four East Asian countries

The industrial upgrading path of East Asian countries is a typical path of gradually achieving industrial upgrading based on the development of labor-intensive industries. The "Four Asian Tigers" and even Japan actually developed along this highway from low value-added to high value-added. In the 1950s, Japan absorbed funds and technology from countries such as the United States, while transferring labor-intensive industries outward through foreign investment. The relatively backward "Four Asian Tigers" actively introduced and developed labor-intensive industries based on their own resource scarcity, narrow market, and low labor costs, and began to take off economically. After the 1970s, the labor costs of the "Four Asian Tigers" themselves also increased day by day, and the advantages of labor-intensive industries gradually disappeared, so these industries were transferred to China and some ASEAN countries. This geese formation model, characterized by the transfer of labor-intensive industries, promotes the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structures within various countries and regions in East Asia, and presents characteristics different from early industrialized countries.

Why is the industrial upgrading path based on the development of labor-intensive products a more convenient fast lane for industrial upgrading? From the perspective of product space theory (see Figure 6), labor-intensive industries (circles) and electronics industries (which are actually labor-intensive) are a shortcut from the edge of the forest to the center, with a wide variety of species and close proximity, which helps these "monkeys" in East Asian countries easily jump onto nearby fruit rich "trees". Essentially, the development of labor-intensive products in East Asian countries has endowed them with complex knowledge and capabilities. The product actually contains various factor endowment information of the economy, including the input of factors required for product production and the corresponding external environment such as organizational methods and social systems, reflecting the production capacity endowment of a country. The development of labor-intensive products such as textiles, clothing, and electronics in East Asian countries is actually a process of learning and accumulating production capacity endowments, which are relatively close to the production capacity endowment requirements of more complex products. This has led East Asian countries to embark on a relatively rapid path of industrial upgrading.

The important inspiration for the industrial upgrading path of East Asian countries also lies in the crucial initial position of the country (mainly the choice of economic sectors). In fact, in the development of the real economy or industry, the structure of knowledge, ability, and other expressions of product production capacity endowment is very important. The forest composition representing the product space is not uniform, with some areas lush and some areas barren. As a country's "monkey", due to its basic endowment of resources, technology, etc., it cannot jump infinitely far. Therefore, some monkeys may not be able to jump from the relatively barren edge to the center of the fruit rich forest. Sometimes, there isn't always a tree nearby that monkeys can reach. Therefore, the starting position of a country in the product space (i.e. the industry development category it begins to choose) is very important.

图6 产品空间结构与东亚国家的产业升级路径

Figure 6 Product spatial structure and industrial upgrading path of East Asian countries

Characteristics of Industrial Upgrading in Five Typical Regions of China

Due to its large size, it is difficult to find suitable comparable objects in China as a whole. The complexity of China's export products has approached that of many high-income countries, and its economic complexity ranks high. However, what is particularly special is that China has not reached the income level that should be achieved like high-income countries. Many studies suggest that the main reason for this is the high proportion of processing trade methods. China has a high dependence on intermediate products with high technological levels in the production of many complex products. Although there is no suitable comparison object for China as a whole, some provinces in China are already large economies in the world in terms of size, and the method of constructing product space by province can be adopted for comparative research. Therefore, based on the theory of product space and corresponding research methods, the industrial upgrading path between East Asian countries has important implications for China's regional industrial upgrading. Therefore, Guangdong Province representing the Pearl River Delta, Jiangsu Province representing the Yangtze River Delta, and major urban agglomerations in central and western China were selected for research in order to gain useful insights.

（1） Judging the trend of industrial upgrading in typical eastern regions

By comparing the spatial distribution of products in Guangdong in 2012 and South Korea in 1995, it can be found that their patterns are basically similar. The areas where advantageous products are concentrated are very similar: firstly, a large number of light industrial textile and clothing products have comparative advantages; The second advantage is electronic products, while the rest of the product space is relatively sparse. The trend of product space changes in South Korea from 1995 to 2014 indicates the country's industrial upgrading path: firstly, the traditional light industry textile and clothing products with comparative advantages have significantly decreased; Secondly, there has been a significant increase in the number of chemical machinery products with comparative advantages, with electronic products being the main advantage and relatively stable. Imagine if Guangdong can successfully learn from South Korea's development experience, it may follow South Korea's path to achieve continuous evolution of comparative advantages and industrial upgrading on this basis. In addition, based on the spatial distribution of products in Jiangsu Province, the spatial pattern of products in Jiangsu Province is similar to that in Guangdong Province, which also indicates that Jiangsu Province and Guangdong Province are in a similar stage of development, and their future industrial upgrading trends are largely similar.

（2） Judgment on the industrial upgrading trend of major urban agglomerations in the central and western regions

Given China's national conditions as a major power and the basic pattern of uneven development between regions, many studies suggest that a "flying geese pattern" such as industrial upgrading between East Asian countries may be achieved within China's domestic regions. Cai Fang et al. (2009) found that by rearranging industries in the eastern, central, and western regions, namely upgrading and transferring industries in coastal areas and undertaking industries in the central and western regions, it is possible to maintain the continuity of labor-intensive industries in China while returning to the comparative advantage of abundant labor in the central and western regions. Zhang Qizi's (2014) research shows that although China has already experienced the phenomenon of "geese formation pattern" industrial upgrading, through the analysis of the evolution of comparative advantages between regions, China is facing the problem of "comparative advantage gap" in the process of "geese formation pattern" industrial upgrading. These factors are not conducive to China's implementation of the "geese formation pattern" industrial upgrading strategy. Moreover, many studies have also noted that the eastern region, which developed first, may not naturally transfer industries to the central and western regions. Li Ya and Fu Runmin (2010) found that having resource advantages alone is not enough for the western region. Only by comprehensively improving the regional capacity structure can the endogenous variable attract industrial transfer from the eastern region. Therefore, based on the theory of product space, this article analyzes the ability of major urban agglomerations in the central and western regions to undertake the potential loss of advantageous industries in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, the two most developed regions in China, in order to explore the feasibility and possible problems of the "geese formation model" for industrial upgrading within China.

In order to measure the ability of the central and western regions to undertake industrial transfer from coastal areas, this article selected four major urban agglomerations with relatively high development levels in the central and western regions (see Table 1). Firstly, select industries in the eastern Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions where the share of total output value has been decreasing year by year, and consider them as potential industries that have lost their advantages; Secondly, calculate the potential production capacity endowment of industries that may lose their advantages in the eastern region in the central and western urban agglomerations. If the production capacity endowment of these industries in the central and western urban agglomerations is high, it is considered to have strong carrying capacity, otherwise it does not have good carrying capacity. The results show (see Tables 2, 3, and 4) that overall, the central and western urban agglomerations have insufficient capacity to undertake potential declining industries in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. For the four major urban agglomerations selected - Wuhan Urban Agglomeration, Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration, Chengdu Chongqing Urban Agglomeration, and Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration - except for a few industries that have already had comparative advantages in the decline of the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, the product density used to measure production capacity endowment is relatively low in most industries, indicating that the central and western urban agglomerations lack the ability to undertake potential declining industries in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. Objectively speaking, influenced by factors such as location conditions, industrial foundation, and historical development, there is still a considerable gap in industrial development between the central and western regions of China and the eastern coastal regions. Therefore, effectively undertaking industrial transfer and promoting industrial structure optimization and adjustment still face significant challenges for the central and western regions.

表1 中国中西部主要城市群的界定

|Excel下载

Table 1 Definition of Major Urban Agglomerations in Central and Western China

表2 中西部主要城市承接长三角潜在衰退产业的能力

|Excel下载

Table 2: The Ability of Major Western Cities to Undertake Potential Declining Industries in the Yangtze River Delta

表3 中西部主要城市承接珠三角潜在衰退产业的能力

|Excel下载

Table 3: The ability of major cities in the central and western regions to undertake potential declining industries in the Pearl River Delta

表4 行业代码与产业名称

|Excel下载

Table 4 Industry Code and Industry Name

The Enlightenment of Industrial Upgrading Paths among Six East Asian Countries

This paper uses product space to study the industrial upgrading of East Asian countries in the "the Belt and Road" region. By examining the industrial upgrading process of East Asian countries more intuitively, we have a clear understanding of the characteristics of national industrial upgrading, so as to further explore the important internal mechanism affecting national industrial upgrading. The industrial upgrading path of East Asian countries is a typical path of gradually upgrading industries based on the development of labor-intensive industries, manifested as the "geese formation model" characterized by the transfer of labor-intensive industries, in order to promote the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structures within various countries and regions in the East Asian region. The general path of industrial upgrading in East Asian countries is essentially manifested as the process of learning and accumulating production capacity endowments through the development of labor-intensive products, and gradually accumulating more complex knowledge and abilities on this basis, embarking on a relatively rapid upgrading path from low value-added to high value-added industries. Based on the theory of product space, constructing an industrial upgrading path on the basis of labor-intensive industries is a relatively convenient "fast lane" for industrial upgrading. In essence, not only the "Four Asian Tigers", but even Japan itself has actually developed along this fast path. The important inspiration of the "geese formation model" for industrial upgrading in East Asian countries is that the initial product space structure of the country and its starting point in the product space have a crucial impact on the choice of industrial upgrading path, which is particularly important for national development.

Through discussions on the industrial structure and upgrading of East Asian countries based on product space, it can be concluded that relatively latecomer economies such as China can learn from the successful experience of developed economies in their industrial upgrading or economic development process, follow the same path as other countries' industrial upgrading, and also pay attention to learning from the lessons of some countries to reduce the risk of failure. In the context of China's proposal and promotion of the "the Belt and Road" initiative, as East Asia has important economic ties with China, the study of industrial upgrading among countries in the region can not only provide practical basis for the specific implementation of the "the Belt and Road" initiative, but also be of great significance for China to strengthen economic cooperation with surrounding regions, promote common development and achieve common prosperity. For the upgrading of regional industries in China, there are the following inspirations.

（1） China's regional industrial upgrading faces fierce competition from low wage countries in Southeast Asia

From the above analysis, it can be seen that regions such as Guangdong in China, which are relatively developed, are also at a higher level of industrial development. There are certain similarities with some Southeast Asian countries in the overall international division of labor pattern, which also means that China and Southeast Asian countries may have similar industrial upgrading paths in the future. In particular, there is competition between China and Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam in attracting investment and exporting products in some labor-intensive industries, and relatively speaking, labor costs in Southeast Asian countries are lower than in China. Therefore, China faces fierce competition from low wage Southeast Asian countries in upgrading certain industries.

（2） The difficulty of industrial transfer in the "geese formation model" of inter regional industrial upgrading in China is significant

With rapid economic growth and expanding demand, western China and Southeast Asian countries have become the main destinations for a new round of international industrial transfer, and there is great competition between the two in undertaking international industrial transfer (Hu Xin et al., 2013). In addition, there is also great competition in undertaking the transfer of some industries from coastal areas of China. Firstly, the central and western regions, such as Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, etc., have relatively insufficient human resources and find it difficult to attract sufficient influx of foreign human capital. Secondly, some relatively low-end manufacturing industries have strict requirements for transportation costs, which can be solved by sea transportation in Southeast Asian and South Asian countries, while the central and western regions of China find it difficult to meet these conditions. Compared to their geographical disadvantages, Southeast Asian countries also have certain labor cost advantages, such as Vietnam and Cambodia, whose minimum wage is lower than that of China. According to a survey by the International Labour Organization, in 2015, the monthly salary of non-technical workers in Vietnam was only $90, slightly higher than half of the average wage level in China. Moreover, some domestic enterprises have also taken the initiative to transfer their industries to Southeast Asia. As shown in Table 5, taking the textile and clothing industry as an example, after the financial crisis, especially in the past three to four years, China's textile and clothing industry has accelerated its transfer to Southeast Asia, gradually evolving from the behavior of individual manufacturers to the concerted action of related enterprises in the industry chain. Firstly, there is the migration of downstream clothing outsourcing industry, followed by the follow-up of mid - and upstream technology-based supporting enterprises. For example, textile and garment OEM enterprises such as Shenzhou International, Jiansheng Co., Ltd., and Lutai A have successively expanded their presence in Southeast Asia. Subsequently, upstream cotton yarn, printing and dyeing, and fabric enterprises such as Huafu Color Spinning, Bailong Oriental, Weixing Co., Ltd., and Lutai A have also accelerated their follow-up.

表5 中国纺织业向东南亚产业转移情况

|Excel下载

Table 5: Transfer of China's Textile Industry to Southeast Asia

（3） Building a unique path for regional industrial upgrading in major countries

Although China has faced challenges in attracting foreign direct investment from other emerging market economies, including Vietnam, its advantage in attracting foreign investment has not disappeared. The existing advantages are changing, and new advantages are forming. Therefore, China needs to choose a unique path as a major country in terms of industrial transformation and upgrading. Compared with cheap labor and policy incentives, the continuously expanding market capacity and continuously improving industrial system will be a new path for China to attract foreign direct investment and promote sustained industrial upgrading in the future.

In terms of the overall goal of industrial upgrading, efforts should be made to vigorously enhance China's importance in the global division of labor system. At present, China needs to pay more attention to improving industrial competitiveness rather than just expanding industrial scale, and strive to become a manufacturing powerhouse rather than just a manufacturing giant. Therefore, on the one hand, we should attach importance to the improvement of the domestic innovation environment, actively promote inclusive growth, strive to establish a reasonable income distribution relationship, encourage more people to share the fruits of economic growth, motivate workers to invest more in human resources to obtain higher income, increase the supply of high-quality labor, and form new human resource advantages; Continuously improving independent innovation capabilities, promoting the development of self created brands, and becoming a global advanced manufacturing base. On the other hand, we should attach importance to introducing international innovation elements and be more committed to attracting manufacturing processes and research and development institutions with high technological levels and greater value-added content to China through various means, guiding the transformation and upgrading of processing trade; Actively introduce advanced foreign technology, modern management experience, and specialized talents in conjunction with regional industrial restructuring; Encourage multinational corporations to establish management and operation centers, research and development centers, and regional headquarters in China.