Global coal consumption continues to decline

The world is beginning to transition towards a low-carbon future, and the proportion of coal in the world's energy structure is bound to decrease. Some developed countries such as France, Germany, and the United States have proposed to significantly reduce the proportion of coal-fired power, and some countries have even proposed to eliminate thermal power generation within a certain period of time. Meanwhile, the rapid growth of emerging energy sources such as nuclear power, hydropower, solar photovoltaic power, and wind power will suppress the market's demand for coal.

1. Negative growth in global coal consumption

As shown in Figure 1, coal still accounts for a large proportion of global energy consumption and will maintain a growth trend for a long time, but the growth rate has declined and some regions have experienced negative growth.

Figure 1 Coal Growth in Various Regions of the World from 1975 to 2035

Compared to 2015, global coal consumption continued to decrease in 2016. Global coal consumption has entered a low-speed period since 2012. In 2015, global coal consumption decreased by 1.8%, lower than the average growth rate of 2.1% over the past decade. 2015 is also the year with the largest decline in growth rate and consumption. The United States saw a 12.7% decrease in coal consumption in 2015, making it the country with the largest decline in consumption. China's consumption growth rate decreased by 1.5%, but India's coal consumption increased by 4.8% and Indonesia's increased by 15%. The world's largest coal exporting country is Australia, followed by Indonesia. The countries that have a significant impact on China are first Australia and Indonesia, followed by Mongolia and North Korea.

China is the world's largest consumer of coal, and from the third and fourth quarters of 2015 to the first and second quarters of 2016, the overall consumption of coking clean coal showed a downward trend (see Table 1). After 2016, the consumption of thermal coal significantly decreased (see Table 2), while the consumption of smokeless coal slightly increased (see Table 3). The overall demand for coal showed a downward trend, and coal consumption continued to be sluggish. According to relevant data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in 2016, the apparent consumption of raw coal in China was about 3.61 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, hitting a new low in apparent consumption in three years. Compared with the peak coal consumption in 2013 (4.29 billion tons), the decrease was 16.0%, mainly due to the slowdown in economic growth and the impact of energy transformation in recent years. It is worth noting that in 2016, the net import of raw coal was 246.73 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%, with a growth rate 54.6 percentage points higher than the same period in 2015, and turned from negative to positive. Among them, from July to November 2016, the cumulative net import of raw coal was about 120 million tons, an increase of 33.32 million tons year-on-year, contributing 69.4% to the annual net import increment. The main reason can be attributed to the significant increase in domestic coal prices in China since the second half of 2016, which has led to a comparative price advantage for imported raw coal from overseas.

表1 2015年、2016年中国炼焦精煤月度消费

|Excel下载

Table 1 Monthly Consumption of Coking Clean Coal in China in 2015 and 2016

表2 2015年、2016年中国动力煤分行业月度消费

|Excel下载

Table 2 Monthly Consumption of Thermal Coal by Industry in China in 2015 and 2016

表3 2015年、2016年中国无烟煤月度消费

|Excel下载

Table 3 Monthly Consumption of Anthracite in China in 2015 and 2016

In 2016, China's raw coal production was 3.41 billion tons, a decrease of 9.0% from the previous year. Coal consumption decreased by 4.7%, accounting for 62.0% of the total energy consumption, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points from the previous year. China's coal production and consumption have been declining for three consecutive years, and the proportion of coal consumption in overall energy consumption has dropped from around 70% in the early 12th Five Year Plan period to 62% now, achieving the original goal of reducing the proportion of coal consumption to 62% by 2020 four years ahead of schedule.

Under the dual impact of lower natural gas prices and the gradual phasing out of coal factories, coal usage in the United States plummeted in 2016. Overall, in 2016, coal consumption in the United States fell by 15%, marking the largest annual average decline in history.

2. World coal consumption is relatively concentrated

According to the BP World Energy Statistical Yearbook (2016), in terms of consumption regions, coal consumption in 2015 was mainly concentrated in the Asia Pacific region (72.9%), Europe and Eurasia (12.2%), North America (11.2%), Africa (2.5%), Central and South America (1.0%), and Middle Eastern countries (0.3%); In terms of national consumption, it is mainly concentrated in China (50.0%), India (10.6%), the United States (10.3%), Japan (3.1%), Indonesia (2.1%), South Korea (2.0%), South Africa (2.0%), Germany (2.0%), and Poland (1.3%); From the perspective of the consumer market, coal is mainly used in the power industry, heavy industries such as steel and cement, and a small portion is used for daily use. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts in its World Energy Outlook (2016) that global coal demand will increase by 214 million tons (oil equivalent) over the next 25 years, a decrease of over 50% compared to its forecast of 485 million tons (oil equivalent) last year.

From a regional distribution perspective, as shown in Figure 2, global coal consumption will accelerate its shift to the Asia Pacific region. In 2015, the total coal demand in the Asia Pacific region accounted for about 75% of the global total.

3. Low demand in downstream coal industries

The coal industry is closely related to other industries. From the end of 2015 to February 2016, the coal consumption in China's power industry sharply decreased to 122.95 million tons; The construction industry has decreased to 22.23 million tons; The coal consumption in the chemical industry has not changed significantly and remains at around 11 million tons; The metallurgical and heating industries have also remained stable, while the coal consumption of other industries has sharply decreased to 6.36 million tons (see Table 4).

Figure 2: Coal Production and Consumption in Different Regions of the World from 1990 to 2015

表4 2016年7～12月中国电力行业煤耗统计

|Excel下载

Table 4 Coal Consumption Statistics of China's Power Industry from July to December 2016

4. Coal demand is still difficult to quickly recover

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the world economic growth rate will be 3.1% in 2016, and is expected to rebound to 3.4% in 2017.

According to BP data, by 2035, global coal consumption is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 percentage points, with 87% of this increase coming from China and India. By 2035, China will still account for 51% of global coal consumption and remain the largest coal consuming country.

The Chinese economy is expected to improve in 2017, but due to constraints such as environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction, and the development of new energy, coal demand is unlikely to rebound significantly.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out that "... it can be seen that coal demand in Asian countries such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Russia has increased, but even so, (this growth) is still not enough to offset the decline in coal demand in China and the United States. The International Energy Agency also predicts that, based on current trends, global coal consumption will only barely recover to the level of 2014 at least by 2021. This year (2017), the total global demand for coal will not exceed the level of 2013 (see Figure 3).

With the introduction of a series of policies by the Chinese government to promote energy consumption transformation this year, China is consciously accelerating the reduction of its dependence on coal-fired power and transitioning towards cleaner and more environmentally friendly nuclear energy, hydropower, natural gas, especially renewable energy. By 2040, China's dependence on coal-fired power will decrease by about 30 percentage points, from approximately 73% of total electricity generation (in 2014) to less than 45%. According to the International Energy Agency's forecast, not only will China's dependence on coal-fired power decrease, but its coal-fired power consumption will also decrease by about 15 percentage points by 2040. Taking all factors into consideration, it is expected that the Chinese economy will improve in 2017, but due to constraints such as environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction, and the development of new energy, coal demand is unlikely to rebound significantly.

Figure 3 Energy consumption in various regions of the world from 1975 to 2035

Taking India, another emerging economy, as an example, in recent years, the Indian power grid has been significantly decarbonized. Under the influence of this policy, the proportion of coal-fired power in India will decrease from 75% in 2014 to 52% in 2040.

Coal supply tends towards supply-demand balance

1. The world's coal reserves and production are concentrated in a few countries and regions

According to data from international market research firm Timetrick, as of December 2015, the global proven coal reserves were approximately 891.5 billion tons. Among them, sub bituminous coal and lignite reached 488.3 billion tons, while anthracite and bituminous coal totaled 403.2 billion tons, accounting for 54.8% and 45.2% of the total reserves, respectively. According to BP's World Energy Statistics Yearbook (2016), global fossil reserves are abundant in oil, natural gas, and coal, with a coal reserve to production ratio of 114 years and no pressure to "exhaust" resources. However, the distribution of coal reserves in different countries and regions of the world is uneven, manifested in Europe and Eurasia (34.8%), Asia and the Pacific (32.3%), North America (27.5%), the Middle East and Africa (3.7%), and Central and South America (1.6%). Among them, the sum of reserves in Eurasia, Asia and the Pacific, and North America accounts for about 94.6% of the world's total, and the reserve production ratio is also relatively high.

In 2015, among the global coal reserves, the United States ranked first with a total reserve of 237.295 billion tons, Russia and China ranked second and third with 157.01 billion tons and 114.5 billion tons respectively, Australia with 76.4 billion tons, India with 60.6 billion tons, and Germany with 40.548 billion tons. At the same time, in 2015, the coal production of the six countries mentioned above was also relatively high, accounting for 78.4% of the global production in total. At the end of 2015, the proven coal reserves and reserve production ratios in various countries and regions around the world are shown in Table 5.

Corresponding to coal production, major coal producing countries in the world are mainly concentrated in a few regions. In 2015, the global coal production in various regions was as follows: Asia and the Pacific (70.6%), North America (12.9%), Europe and Eurasia (11.0%), Africa (4%), and Central and South America (1.6%).

表5 世界不同国家和地区煤炭储量情况及储采比（2015年12月）

|Excel下载

Table 5 Coal Reserves and Production Ratios in Different Countries and Regions of the World (December 2015)

The differences in regional production are mainly determined by a few major coal producing countries. In 2015, there were seven countries whose coal production accounted for over 2% of the world's total production, namely China (47.7%), the United States (11.9%), India (7.4%), Australia (7.2%), Indonesia (6.3%), Russia (4.8%), and South Africa (3.7%). These seven countries collectively accounted for 89.0% of the world's total production.

2. The supply and demand of coal in major production and consumption countries tend to be balanced

In 2016, with the decline in consumer demand, the global coal market supply further contracted, especially in the first half of the year when some coal mines in Australia and Indonesia were temporarily shut down due to weather conditions, resulting in further intensification of coal supply tension. Due to the combined effects of declining coal demand and active coal overcapacity reduction in China, a large number of small coal mines have closed and stopped production, resulting in a decrease in coal production and a reasonable return to coal prices. But as international thermal coal prices continue to rise in the second half of the year, production enterprises in some countries and regions have begun to increase their supply, and the market supply and demand situation has begun to balance. In China, with the decline in coal production and the sustained high temperatures in the summer of 2016, the overall electricity consumption of the society has increased significantly, which has significantly driven the growth of coal consumption. Local floods and waterlogging disasters have affected coal production and transportation. At the same time, road overloading control and railway fare adjustments have led to an increase in coal transportation costs, and the international coal market has undergone changes, resulting in a significant rise in coal prices. The combined effect of the above factors has led to an increasing expectation of tight market supply and rising prices, driving the coal market to experience a rapid recovery after July. In the second half of the year, with the continuous release of advanced production capacity, prices have returned to a reasonable range.

India's coal supply is exactly the opposite of China's. The state-owned coal companies in India, which account for over 90% of the country's coal production, achieved a historic high of nearly 550 million tons in 2016. According to a report by Fitch Group's rating agency BMI Research Institute, as India's state-owned coal company Coal India Ltd. significantly increases its coal production to meet the demand of domestic power plants, India will surpass the United States and become the second largest coal producing country after China by 2020. India is a developing country with a high demand for energy in the development of its national economy. Meanwhile, the Indian government has stated that it will not make encouraging coal imports a national policy. Instead, it will focus on how to increase coal production and achieve the goal of doubling coal and energy production by 2019. According to a report by BMI Research Institute on October 6, 2016, the proportion of India's coal production in the world's total production is expected to increase from 9.8% in 2016 to 12.7% by 2020. The report points out that by 2020, India's coal production will still not meet the government's target, and domestic coal production will still be in short supply.

Other economies have also adjusted their domestic production and imports in a timely manner based on domestic demand, and Russia and South Africa have basically achieved a balance between production and consumption. In the first 10 months of 2016, the coal production in the United States was only 611 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%, while Mongolia's coal production reached 25.263 million tons during the same period, a year-on-year increase of 30%.

The investment and mergers and acquisitions of Sanmei coal show a trend of "moving eastward and retreating westward"

1. A new wave of mergers and acquisitions has emerged in China's coal industry

In January 2017, Rio Tinto Group, the world's second-largest mining giant, announced on its official website that it would sell its coal&Allied Industries Ltd., a thermal coal asset subsidiary located in Hunter Valley, Australia, to Yanzhou Coal Australia Limited, a subsidiary of Yanzhou Coal Industry, for up to $2.45 billion (approximately RMB 16.8 billion) to Chinese coal producer Yanzhou Coal Industry. At the same time, with the intensification of the coal market crisis and the increasing losses of a large number of coal enterprises, Chinese coal enterprises have shifted from external expansion to internal mergers and reorganizations. The National Development and Reform Commission is studying accelerating the closure and exit of small coal mines, and further supporting large coal enterprises to merge and restructure small and medium-sized coal enterprises. In 2016, with the establishment of Guoyuan Coal Asset Management Co., Ltd. and the proposed transfer of 30.31% of the A-shares of SDIC Xinji Energy Co., Ltd. held by SDIC to middling coal Group for free, the coal stripping business of central enterprises has been surging.

2. Other major coal producing countries in Asia are actively expanding overseas

The world's largest coal miner, Coal India, has targeted its coking coal acquisition business towards overseas markets. Its controlling subsidiary Videsh Coal is in talks to acquire coking coal resources in countries such as Australia and South Africa. In 2015, Coal India announced that it would invest $4.5 billion (approximately RMB 28.446 billion) in overseas coal asset acquisitions, mergers, and reorganizations.

As the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, Indonesia's situation has attracted much attention. According to the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the installed capacity of coal power in Indonesia will increase significantly in 2019, and the demand and consumption of coal will rise to 290 million tons, which is three times that of 2016. In other words, in the next three years, Indonesia's coal industry will develop mainly to meet domestic demand. Indonesia, as the largest exporter of thermal coal, may significantly reduce its coal exports. Currently, despite the decline in export volume, Indonesia has also accelerated its expansion and development of the coal industry overseas. Large Indonesian coal companies have also increased their scale of overseas mergers and acquisitions. For example, in January 2016, Salim Group of Indonesia acquired one of Rio Tinto's largest coal mines in New South Wales, Australia from Rio Tinto; BukitAsam, an Indonesian company, is in the process of purchasing a 24% stake in Ignite Energy Resources, an Australian company.

3. The overall trend of global coal investment and mergers and acquisitions is shifting eastward and westward

Due to the overall slowdown in global economic development, as well as the increased development and utilization of various new energy sources and efforts in energy conservation, emission reduction, and environmental protection, the world's coal consumption decreased in 2016, and the growth rate of coal consumption and investment worldwide will continue to show a downward trend.

The European and American regions have abundant coal reserves. Since the outbreak of the supply-demand contradiction in the international coal market in 2012, coal prices have generally been declining. With the shale gas boom and increasing investment in the new energy industry by various countries, coal companies in Europe and America are facing difficulties in operation, leading to bankruptcy and mergers and acquisitions. In developed economies that are gradually separating from and eliminating coal, coal enterprises are facing survival crisis, bankruptcy, or difficult survival. Large consortia and giants are also accelerating the divestiture of coal business or assets. In 2015-2016, South African mining company Esso acquired all coal assets of the world's fifth largest energy company, French coal company Total, for $382 million. Australian company Rio Tinto sold a 40% stake in the Bengalla coal mine for over $600 million. Anglo American sold a 51% stake in the Dawson coal mine and a 70% stake in the Foxleigh coal mine located in the Bowen Basin of Queensland, Australia. The world's largest sovereign wealth fund, Norwegian Petroleum Fund, has sold stakes in 52 coal related companies from its investment portfolio.

With the improvement of economic development level, the demand for coal in developing countries has significantly increased, becoming the main force for investment and mergers and acquisitions in the coal market, especially in Asia. Although China and India are actively exploring new energy industries, their dependence on coal is difficult to change in the short term due to technological and industrial structure constraints. At the same time, Indonesia's scale of coal enterprise mergers and acquisitions overseas is gradually increasing, and Asian countries have become the main force for overseas investment and mergers and acquisitions in the coal industry.

In the past few years, the market value of Western mining companies has been continuously declining, and Chinese companies investing and holding shares in overseas mineral enterprises have entered a loss making stage, facing very difficult situations. For Chinese companies that previously invested and bought resources overseas, the pressure is increasing day by day. Therefore, in recent years, the number and transaction amount of overseas mergers and acquisitions by Chinese coal enterprises have begun to decline. Taking Yanzhou Mining, one of China's earliest companies to expand overseas, as an example, its global coal industry layout is becoming increasingly cautious, but it still has plans to acquire high-quality coal assets. From the acquisition of Austar Coal Mine in 2004 to the completion of this acquisition, Yanzhou Coal Industry has become the largest independent coal operator in Australia by controlling the capital market, and its coal reserves and production will increase to the third place in Australia.

Forecast of the Four World Coal Market Situation

1. Developed countries gradually reduce their consumption of coal energy

In recent years, due to the accelerated development of new energy, the increasing global environmental requirements, and the increasing supply of other fossil fuels such as shale gas, coupled with the overall supply-demand relationship in the coal market, the global coal industry market has been sluggish. Many large coal enterprises in Europe and America have gone bankrupt and restructured, and international conglomerates and giants have accelerated the pace of divesting coal businesses or assets. The situation of the coal industry is not optimistic. In the short term, coal remains the mainstay of global power supply, but in the long run, the survival and development of the coal industry urgently require the development and popularization of clean coal technology.

In the United States, almost all coal consumption is used for power generation. In the past few years, the proportion of coal-fired power generation has been declining year by year due to the increase in natural gas and renewable energy generation. Due to the increase in natural gas power generation, the average spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub natural gas trading center in the United States has decreased from $2.63/MMBtu in 2015 to $2.4/MMBtu in 2016. In 2016, the coal consumption of American power companies was about 681 million tons, a new low since 1985. Natural gas power generation accounted for about 34% of the total power generation, while coal-fired power generation only accounted for 30%. For the first time, natural gas power generation exceeded coal-fired power generation. Since May 2015, Patriot Coal, Walter Energy, Alpha Natural, Arch Coal, and Peabody Energy have filed for bankruptcy. In recent years, dozens of coal companies in the United States have filed for bankruptcy.

France has also begun a policy of phasing out coal. Former French President Francois Hollande announced at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Marrakech that France will gradually phase out coal-fired power plants by the end of 2023. In addition, he also claimed that existing coal factories will be closed and the national goal is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040. Prior to this move, more and more developed countries began to oppose the excessive use of highly polluting coal power in the global fight against climate change.

Australia is the world's largest coal exporting country, and coal is the main economic pillar of Australia. In the 10 years after 2000, coal production continued to grow, from 300 million tons to over 500 million tons. At present, Australia's coal production is second only to India, making it the fourth largest coal producing country in the world. It exports over 300 million tons of coal annually, with coking coal and thermal coal exports accounting for almost half each. In the past 10 years, Australia's coal investment has increased tenfold and new production capacity has been continuously released. Affected by the decrease in international demand, Australia's coal production also significantly decreased in 2015. In 2016, it rebounded again due to the influence of China.

2. China and India are the backbone forces for the subsequent development of the world coal industry

(1) China will gradually achieve stability on the basis of resolving overcapacity in coal production

In the 2016 World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that China is moving away from excessive use of coal power. The report states that "China remains the largest coal consumer and producer to date, with a decline in coal consumption expected to change the global outlook by 2040: except for years when hydropower generation is reduced due to drought, China's coal use may peak by 2030. In addition, the early peak of coal usage was caused by the slowdown of China's manufacturing industry, which is the main consumer of coal and electricity in a country.

In 2017, with the continued promotion of overcapacity reduction in the coal industry and the acceleration of state-owned enterprise reform, the concentration of the coal industry will further increase, and the control of large state-owned enterprises over the entire industry will be further strengthened. Affected by the replacement of clean and low-carbon energy, the market space for coal-fired power will be further squeezed; At the same time, the consumption of coal and other loose coal in industries such as steel and building materials is difficult to recover, coupled with increasingly strict environmental requirements, it is expected that coal consumption will continue to decline throughout the year. China will continue to address the issue of overcapacity in coal production.

The National Energy Administration pointed out that in 2017, China's total energy consumption will be controlled at approximately 4.4 billion tons of standard coal, and the proportion of coal in total energy consumption will decrease to about 60%. China will strive to close more than 500 backward coal mines and withdraw production capacity of about 50 million tons. Coal production and consumption are gradually achieving balance.

(2) India will continue to increase strategic investment in the coal industry

The coal production of India's state-owned coal companies accounts for 80% of the country's total coal production, making them the world's largest coal producers. The company's coal production is expected to double to 1 billion tons by 2020. In addition, India has a huge population and energy consumption. With the development of the Indian economy, the demand for coal will increase significantly. Therefore, at a time when global coal prices are low, India is vigorously seeking coal mine acquisition targets overseas to meet its future energy needs.

(3) Other major coal producing countries in Asia will adjust their export coal production according to the market

Although coal prices are low, Indonesian state-owned coal company Bukit Asam is still trying to increase production, but the total coal production in Indonesia will continue to decline. The situation in Russia is relatively stable, with exports and production showing a generally positive trend in 2016 and 2015. For two consecutive years, exports have shown an increasing trend, and production has also increased. This is mainly due to the depreciation of the ruble, which enhances its price competitiveness internationally. Due to the decline in its own demand for coal, Russia still hopes to gain a certain market share in the international coal market in the future. Mongolia's main export to China is coking coal, with 94% of its coking coal exported to China. In 2012, its export volume to China was nearly 20 million tons. Due to national policy issues and coal resource development problems in the later stage, exports encountered some bottlenecks. Mongolia's situation in 2016 is still on the rise, and it is expected that the coal export volume this year will not exceed 22 million tons. However, the bottleneck is still the large transportation channel between the two countries and cooperation between large enterprises. North Korea mainly exports smokeless coal to China. In 2015, China imported 196.3 million tons of coal from North Korea, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%. From January to September 2016, China imported 16.7 million tons of coal from North Korea, a year-on-year increase of 10.55%. In October 2016, China's coal imports from North Korea increased by 40% compared to September. Due to political reasons, North Korea's exports to China have also been affected.

3. The coal industry still accounts for a large proportion of the world's energy supply

(1) Technological transformation and emission reduction policies help solve environmental constraints

With the continuous strengthening of global environmental awareness, the Kyoto Protocol passed in December 1997 adopted market mechanisms as a new path to solve the problem of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, represented by carbon dioxide. Coal combustion produces a large amount of greenhouse gases, resulting in excessive carbon emissions, so coal is the first to be affected.

To address the carbon emissions issue in the coal industry, emissions reduction can be achieved by increasing coal washing rates, reducing the use of loose coal, and improving clean coal utilization technologies. Through the continuous updating of clean coal washing technology, the comprehensive improvement of selection rate is achieved, and mandatory measures are taken to force power generation enterprises to use coal washing to increase the harmless treatment and emission of coal emissions. This will undoubtedly contribute to achieving high carbon energy and low-carbon emissions, reducing coal environmental pollution, improving comprehensive utilization, and reducing environmental constraints on coal utilization.

(2) New energy cannot replace coal in the short term

In the next 20 years, the energy structure will undergo significant changes: natural gas will grow rapidly, while renewable energy such as solar and wind energy will develop strongly. By 2035, the growth of renewable energy will double, with one-third of the increase in electricity generation coming from renewable energy. However, due to issues such as technology, equipment, and carbon emissions in production processes, fossil fuels will still maintain their dominant position globally. It is expected that by 2035, 60% of global energy growth and 80% of global energy supply will still rely on fossil fuels.

In addition, the shale gas mining industry, which has had a significant impact on the coal industry in recent years, is facing various unstable factors. Among market fluctuations, oil prices have the greatest impact on shale gas, and sustained low oil prices may have frustrated the production capacity of emerging oil and gas companies. With oil prices remaining low in 2015, investment and production of shale oil companies in the United States have shown a significant decline. By the first half of 2016, 59 oil and gas companies in the United States had applied for creditor protection, and the scale of bankruptcy applications was close to the Internet foam period. Unless there are significant policy and technological changes, new energy cannot replace coal in energy consumption in recent years.

Five conclusions

The development of the coal industry is closely related to the overall global economic situation and energy policies. Overall, developed economies in Europe, North America, and other regions have entered the post industrial era, and their dependence on high energy consuming heavy industries is gradually decreasing. This has led to the gradual detachment and elimination of coal in the region, and large energy companies are accelerating the divestment or exit of coal businesses. Emerging economies in the Asia Pacific region, due to their rapid development in heavy industrialization, cannot do without the support of cheap energy to maintain strong demand. However, some regions may temporarily experience a slight decrease in coal demand due to the impact of economic downturn. Meanwhile, due to the impact of global climate change and environmental policies, the survival and development of the coal industry require the vigorous development of clean coal production and utilization technologies in the future to enhance the industry's sustainable development capabilities.