国际贸易形势回顾与展望：触底反弹

Abstract:Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade is expected to rebound in the first half of 2017 from its tepid performance in 2016. In the first half of 2017，the increase of global merchandise trade was much higher than the annual growth rate 2.4% predicted by WTO in April. The policy uncertainties of global economy recovery exist，but global trade is rebounding from the bottom significantly. We think that the global merchandise trade growth in 2017 will outstrip the level of that in 2016，and the trade volume growth rate will be more than 3.0%. Considering the downside risks agglomerate，and avoiding our basic assumptions too pessimistic，we estimate that the growth rate of global merchandise trade in 2018 could be around 3.0%. Sino-US trade and economic relations will affect the growth of global trade directly. Facing the volatile trade policies from Trump government，bilateral trade and economic cooperation between China and US will be a process of grinding. We believe that the possibility of a full trade conflict between China and US is not large，but bilateral trade frictions will increase，it is difficult to solve the contradiction between China and US in a short term，which is required gradual adjustment.

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