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“一带一路”并购估值风险研究

作者:郭昱 出版日期:2017年04月 报告页数:13 页 报告大小: 报告字数:9197 字 所属丛书:“一带一路”投资安全蓝皮书 所属图书:中国“一带一路”投资与安全研究...

文章摘要

  

本文从企业跨国并购的角度研究估值模型中风险如何衡量,为企业在“一带一路”布局中提供决策依据。目前“一带一路”投资仍以政府主导为主,企业在该区域的并购行为相对较少,主要是受风险因素的影响。从估值风险角度分析,“一带一路”区域国家风险较高,导致经典估值模型中无风险利率、贝塔系数、风险溢价等一系列基本参数的缺失;部分国家市场标准不完善,或者市场标准不同,导致模型修正、更正复杂,使风险难以量化。当经典模型难以判断时,风险衡量的重点在国家风险判断上,若有主权债务评级,参考评级判断风险;若无评级,关注宏观环境风险的概率进行判断。

Abstract

  

This paper studies how to measure the risk valuation model from the perspective of transnational merger and acquisition,offer the decision basis for the enterprises in the “B&R” layout. At present,“B&R” investment is still dominated by government,enterprises in mergers and acquisitions in the region is relatively small. From the perspective of risk valuation,“B&R” regional countries and higher risk,resulting in lack of a series of basic parameters of the risk-free interest rate,the classic valuation model in the beta coefficient and risk premium;part of the national market standard is not perfect,or the market lead to different standards,model correction correction of complex,difficult to quantify the risk. When the classic model is difficult to judge,the focus of risk assessment in the national risk assessment,if there is a sovereign debt rating,the risk of judging the reference rating;if there is no rating,concerned about the probability of macroeconomic risk assessment.

作者简介

郭昱:郭昱,上海立信会计金融学院副教授,管理学博士,资产评估师,主要研究领域为企业价值评估与资产评估。