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2015年的美国经济:增长持续 风险犹存

作者:王荣军 出版日期:2016年06月 报告页数:19 页 报告大小: 报告字数:15734 字 所属丛书:美国蓝皮书 所属图书:美国研究报告(2016) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2015年,美国经济增长受到油价大幅度下跌以及美元持续升值的影响,宏观经济总体走势呈现以下特点:经济增长持续,增速与上年持平;就业状况继续改善,通货膨胀保持低位;住房产业持续复苏,私人消费继续成为增长主动力,消费支出继续增长,但增速下降;而私人投资增速偏低,对外出口下降;失业率持续下降至5%以下是最大的亮点,而通货膨胀率则持续低于美联储设定的2%的水平。2015年下半年后,企业投资不振,利润下降,工业生产明显减速,金融市场动荡不止,与强劲的就业增... 展开

文章摘要:2015年,美国经济增长受到油价大幅度下跌以及美元持续升值的影响,宏观经济总体走势呈现以下特点:经济增长持续,增速与上年持平;就业状况继续改善,通货膨胀保持低位;住房产业持续复苏,私人消费继续成为增长主动力,消费支出继续增长,但增速下降;而私人投资增速偏低,对外出口下降;失业率持续下降至5%以下是最大的亮点,而通货膨胀率则持续低于美联储设定的2%的水平。2015年下半年后,企业投资不振,利润下降,工业生产明显减速,金融市场动荡不止,与强劲的就业增长数据形成对照。美国联邦财政支出趋稳,贸易政策领域有进展。美联储被迫在复杂的经济环境下进行货币政策决策,12月开始的利率上调步伐进展并不顺利。美联储在决策方面更加谨慎,其政策走向和节奏掌握对2016年的美国和世界经济增长带来的风险加大。

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Abstract:In 2015,American economic growth felt the impact of the dramatic fall of international oil prices and the continuing appreciation of the US dollar since latter half of 2014. Its growth rate is roughly the same as the last year,with employment situation continued to improve and inflation rate stayed low. The housing sector maintained on the recovery path and private consumption was still the main driver of the growth,consumer expend... 展开

Abstract:In 2015,American economic growth felt the impact of the dramatic fall of international oil prices and the continuing appreciation of the US dollar since latter half of 2014. Its growth rate is roughly the same as the last year,with employment situation continued to improve and inflation rate stayed low. The housing sector maintained on the recovery path and private consumption was still the main driver of the growth,consumer expenditure expanded further but with a slower pace. Private investment grew with a relatively low pace,and the export went down obviously. In the second half of 2015,corporate profits suffered due to the sluggish business investment,industrial production indexes were weak,and the volatility of financial market continued its way,standing in contrast with the strong job data. The Federal Reserve was forced to weigh different policy choices with more cautious,adjusting to the complicated domestic and international economic environment. Risks associated with monetary policy are likely to grow in 2016.

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作者简介

王荣军:王荣军,中国社会科学院美国研究所研究员,经济研究室主任,主要研究领域为美国经济。