低油价及其对中东经济和地缘政治的影响
文章摘要：2014年下半年以来，国际石油价格出现暴跌。油价急剧变化的表面原因既有市场供求关系的变化，也有中东地缘政治形势的影响；而深层原因却是一场相关方面的战略利益博弈。这种博弈可能使国际石油市场进入一个长达数年的低油价新周期。低油价周期的持续，给中东经济带来的负面影响可能大于正面影响，对于伊朗核问题谈判产生推动作用，但不会改变中东地区多极化的地缘政治格局。
Abstract:International oil prices have collapsed since the second half of 2014. Apparently，this sharp change resulted from the unbalanced demand and supply，as well as from the geo-political situation in the Middle East. The in-depth driving forces however，are related to a game of strategic interests. This game could drive the international oil marked into a new low price cycle that may last for years. A sustained low price cycle may produce... 展开
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