国际贸易形势回顾与展望：低速的新常态

Abstract:The recovery of world economy is still quite weak. The sluggish growth of global trade has not been improved significantly in 2014. Expansion in the volume of world trade will pick up only slightly in 2015. The increase of global merchandise trade in the first half is moderate at 1.8%，lower than 3.3% predicted by WTO. According to the strong growth of U.S. economy in the second quarter and the rebound of some pilot indices，we forecast that the growth of global merchandise trade could be less than 3.0%. The growth rates of global trade and world economy will be similar for a period of time. We suggest that the growth of global trade in 2016 could be around 3.5%. Global trade is influenced by regional trade agreements. After a number of intensive negotiations by 12 member countries，TPP negotiation reached an agreement，which can be seen a result of the competition of U.S. interest groups. TPP will bring about profound impacts on international trade rules and world economy. In order to improve the sluggish growth of global trade，countries should offset the negative effect of trade restrictive measures by promoting trade facilitation. Speeding up the process of trade facilitation not only can prevent trade protectionism effectively，but also can promote the development of global and regional trade.

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