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俄罗斯在阿拉伯世界的战略调整与前瞻

作者:龚正 出版日期:2015年11月 报告页数:16 页 报告大小: 报告字数:16728 字 所属丛书:阿拉伯黄皮书 所属图书:阿拉伯发展报告(2014~2015)

文章摘要

  

俄罗斯对阿拉伯世界的战略重点既有传承,也有调整。2014年以来,俄对阿战略调整动作频频,一是加强打造埃及、叙利亚战略支点;二是支持地方国家打击恐怖主义蔓延;三是与沙特加强战略沟通与互动。综合看,俄对阿战略主要受俄美博弈、强国抱负、国内安全、经济利益等四大因素影响。中短期内,俄对阿战略调整与俄美关系密切相关,俄将继续将阿拉伯世界作为与美全球争霸的筹码,牵扯美战略注意力。长期看,俄在阿拉伯世界有战略空间,阿拉伯对俄罗斯亦有需求,但阿拉伯世界在俄全球战略中的比重仍处次要位置。

Abstract

  

There are both inheritance and adjustments in Russia’s strategic focus on the Arab world. Since 2014,Russia has been constantly adjusting its strategies:first,it has strengthened its strategic pivot in Egypt and Syria;second,it supports local and national forces to combat the spread of terrorism;third,it has upgraded its strategic communication and interaction with Saudi Arabia. When examined comprehensively,Russia’s main strategies for Arab countries are influenced by Russian-US gaming,ambitions of a strong power,domestic security and economic interests. In the short term,Russia’s strategies for Arab countries will depend heavily on the Russian-US relationship. Specifically,Russia will continue to take the Arab world as a bargaining chip in its competition with the United States for global hegemony so long as Arab countries can divert US strategic attention. In the long term,Russia can find strategic space in the Arab world,and the Arab world also has interest in Russia;nonetheless,the Arab world will maintain its secondary position in Russia’s global strategizing.

作者简介

龚正:龚正,中国现代国际关系研究院中东研究所助理研究员,主要研究中东政治、巴以问题。

陈宇:陈宇,中国现代国际关系研究院俄罗斯研究所研究实习员,研究领域为俄罗斯对外政策、安全与能源问题。