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2014年国会中期选举与奥巴马政府内政外交走向

作者:刁大明 出版日期:2014年07月 报告页数:16 页 报告大小: 报告字数:15981 字 所属丛书:美国蓝皮书 所属图书:美国研究报告(2014) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:作为美国政治的新一轮洗牌,2014年中期选举牵动着奥巴马任期最后两年的内政外交政策走向,值得关注。本文就影响本次中期选举的主要因素、中期选举的可能结果、选后奥巴马政府内外政策走向及选举对中美关系的可能影响等四个方面展开讨论。本文认为,本次中期选举将延续甚至激化目前两党对峙、府会分立的极化状态。在选举之后,奥巴马政府在内政事务上将陷入停滞状态,经济与就业、全民医保政策及移民改革政策等都将直接关乎其执政遗产。同时,奥巴马的亚太战略调整和中东政... 展开

文章摘要:作为美国政治的新一轮洗牌,2014年中期选举牵动着奥巴马任期最后两年的内政外交政策走向,值得关注。本文就影响本次中期选举的主要因素、中期选举的可能结果、选后奥巴马政府内外政策走向及选举对中美关系的可能影响等四个方面展开讨论。本文认为,本次中期选举将延续甚至激化目前两党对峙、府会分立的极化状态。在选举之后,奥巴马政府在内政事务上将陷入停滞状态,经济与就业、全民医保政策及移民改革政策等都将直接关乎其执政遗产。同时,奥巴马的亚太战略调整和中东政策都将因中期选举而遭遇国内政治层面的重大阻力。

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Abstract:The 2014 U.S. Midterm elections can be described as the new reshuffle of American politics,which affects the domestic and foreign policy agenda in the final 2 years of Obama administration. This paper discusses the main factors in the elections,forecast the results,and estimate the influence on the Obama’s domestic and foreign policy and Sino-US relations. This paper argues that the elections will continue and even deepen the curr... 展开

Abstract:The 2014 U.S. Midterm elections can be described as the new reshuffle of American politics,which affects the domestic and foreign policy agenda in the final 2 years of Obama administration. This paper discusses the main factors in the elections,forecast the results,and estimate the influence on the Obama’s domestic and foreign policy and Sino-US relations. This paper argues that the elections will continue and even deepen the current parisan polarization and divided goverment. After the elections,the Obama administration will be stalled in the domestic issues,such as the economy and employment,health care reforem,immigration reform related to Obama’s heritage. On the foreign policy arena,Obama’s Asia-Pacific and Middle East policies will suffered major internal resistance during and after the elections. Meanwhile the U.S. Midterm elections and the subsequent political chaos may provide some possibility for the“Diplomat President”role of Obama to promote the Sino-US“new type of relations between great powers”.

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作者简介

刁大明:刁大明,中国社会科学院美国研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为美国政治、中美关系。