国际金融形势回顾与展望

Abstract:The Euro crisis has showed an on-off pattern during 2011-2012 and become the major risk for international financial market. Meanwhile, conventional and unconventional monetary policies adopted by major monetary authorities provided low interest rate for growth, but released new liquidity to global financial market. Investors' risk appetite has shifted to aversion and searched for safe haven. Deleverage in banking sector continued but claims for developing economies picked up. The government debt market has been divergent, reflecting risk preference. In international debt market, apart from the US dollar and other currencies, currencies in emerging economies have gained more grounds in debt denomination than before. Some favorable fundamentals and easy monetary condition have supported stock market. In global foreign exchange market, the US dollar has performed as safe asset, but turned back into the long-term trend of devaluation because the danger of Euro zone split has eliminated in the late 2012. In 2013, global financial market will be impacted by the key factors, such as slow growth of the world economy, evolvement of Euro crisis and fiscal adjustment, change of global liquidity, and consolidation of the banking industry. The market will continue to be fragile and volatile.

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