日本经济：外需与政府支出带动下的微弱回升

Abstract:During 2008-2009，Japanese economy fell into recession for 4 continuous quarters suffering from the American financial crisis. However，the trend seems to be changed in the first quarter of 2009，when Japan achieved a weak growth. In 2010，we predict the recovery will be sustainable mainly driven by the external demand growth and government stimulus policy，though it may remain very weak. Also，economic recovery and high unemployment will co-exist. In the short term，under the aggressive fiscal stimulus policy by DPJ，there may be a relatively strong growth in a very short period. In 2010，Japan may have to face up with inflationary pressure after deflation，worsening employment condition，hollowing-out of its manufacturing sector. Also，competition among Asian economies will become even more fierce in the near future.

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