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2023~2024年德国内政与外交走势

作者:郑春荣 所属图书:德国发展报告(2024) 图书作者:同济大学德国研究中心 中国欧洲学会德国研究分会 郑春荣 出版时间:2024年11月 所属丛书:
报告字数:23478字 报告页数:21页 浏览人数: 下载次数:

文章摘要:2023年对于德国总理朔尔茨领导下的“交通灯”联合政府而言,依然是充满挑战的一年。曾是欧洲经济引擎的德国成为唯一没有增长的发达经济体,这引发了德国经济繁荣模式是否走向终结的讨论。虽然朔尔茨政府提出了《德国经济区位十点计划》,但是,由于预算资金捉襟见肘等原因,目前还未看到这些措施的显著效果。俄乌冲突促使德国外交、安全与防务政策进行大幅转型,在此背景下,德国也推出了其历史上首份《国家安全战略》。作为从俄乌冲突中吸取的教训,德国政府在其出台的《... 展开

文章摘要:2023年对于德国总理朔尔茨领导下的“交通灯”联合政府而言,依然是充满挑战的一年。曾是欧洲经济引擎的德国成为唯一没有增长的发达经济体,这引发了德国经济繁荣模式是否走向终结的讨论。虽然朔尔茨政府提出了《德国经济区位十点计划》,但是,由于预算资金捉襟见肘等原因,目前还未看到这些措施的显著效果。俄乌冲突促使德国外交、安全与防务政策进行大幅转型,在此背景下,德国也推出了其历史上首份《国家安全战略》。作为从俄乌冲突中吸取的教训,德国政府在其出台的《中国战略》中也特别强调要减少对中国的战略性依赖。尽管德国政府希望在国际事务上更加积极有为,但其在对外政策上依然面临执政各党内部分歧以及如何平衡经济利益和价值观的挑战。由于联合政府内部执政各党之间的争论公开化,德国民众对朔尔茨政府的不满不断上升,在执政各党在2024年6月欧洲议会选举中遭受挫折的背景下,它们势必会在联合政府内更加试图凸显自身形象,这进一步增加了朔尔茨政府的执政难度。展望2025年9月的联邦议院选举,如何重新赢得德国民众对其执政能力的信任,是摆在所有主流政党面前的共同挑战。

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Abstract:2023 was a challenging year for the “traffic light” coalition government led by Chancellor Scholz. Germany,once the economic engine of Europe,became the only developed economy with no growth,triggering a discussion on whether the German economic boom model was coming to an end. The Scholz government put forward a “10-point plan for Germany as a business hub”,but due to,among other reasons,budgetary constraints a significant ... 展开

Abstract:2023 was a challenging year for the “traffic light” coalition government led by Chancellor Scholz. Germany,once the economic engine of Europe,became the only developed economy with no growth,triggering a discussion on whether the German economic boom model was coming to an end. The Scholz government put forward a “10-point plan for Germany as a business hub”,but due to,among other reasons,budgetary constraints a significant effect of these measures has yet to materialize. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused a dramatic transformation of Germany’s foreign,security and defense policies. In this situation Germany launched the first National Security Strategy in its history. Having learned a hard lesson in the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the government emphasized in its Strategy on China the need to reduce Germany’s strategic dependence on China. The government wants to be more active in international affairs,but is hampered by the challenge of balancing,in its foreign policy,economic interests with values while at the same time dealing with internal divisions among the three coalition parties. As strife between the three governing coalition parties became public,the people’s dissatisfaction with the Scholz government continued to rise. Against the backdrop of the setbacks suffered in the June 2024 European Parliament election,the three parties will inevitably try to project their own image within the coalition government even more,thus further increasing the difficulties of the Scholz government. Looking ahead to the Bundestag election in September 2025,how to regain the trust of the German public in their ability to govern is a challenge common to all mainstream parties.

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作者简介

郑春荣:郑春荣,同济大学德国研究中心主任、教授,主要研究领域为德国政治与外交、中德及中欧关系以及中美欧三边关系。

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