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伊朗核问题谈判的困境与出路

作者:潘登 出版日期:2023年12月 报告页数:33 页 报告大小: 报告字数:40050 字 所属图书:云大地区研究(第8期) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:在欧洲的斡旋下,旨在恢复履行伊朗核问题全面协议的谈判于维也纳举行,但由于美伊双方分歧过大,谈判陷入长期停滞。拜登政府有意重返伊核协议,但受到共和党人与以色列的强势阻挠。欧洲作为伊核谈判中间人,对外不能独立自主,对内无法团结一致,这就限制了其调解各方分歧的能力。乌克兰危机、伊朗国内抗议等事件加剧了局势的复杂性,使伊核谈判的态势和走向更加不明朗。伊朗通过“抵抗经济”和“向东看”政策打开了经济和外交新局面,并积极改善与周边国家关系,达到了发... 展开

文章摘要:在欧洲的斡旋下,旨在恢复履行伊朗核问题全面协议的谈判于维也纳举行,但由于美伊双方分歧过大,谈判陷入长期停滞。拜登政府有意重返伊核协议,但受到共和党人与以色列的强势阻挠。欧洲作为伊核谈判中间人,对外不能独立自主,对内无法团结一致,这就限制了其调解各方分歧的能力。乌克兰危机、伊朗国内抗议等事件加剧了局势的复杂性,使伊核谈判的态势和走向更加不明朗。伊朗通过“抵抗经济”和“向东看”政策打开了经济和外交新局面,并积极改善与周边国家关系,达到了发展经济、改善安全环境和向西方施压的三重效果。长期来看,和平解决伊朗核问题依然符合相关各方利益,伊核谈判仍有合作空间,但最终解决伊朗核问题的变量并非美伊关系,而是国际体系的转型。

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Abstract:Under the mediation of Europe,the negotiations aimed at resuming the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) were held in Vienna. Nevertheless,due to the excessive differences between the United States and Iran,the negotiations have been stalled for a long time. The Biden administration has shown a willingness to return to the JCOPA,but has been strongly blocked by Republicans and Israel. As an intermedi... 展开

Abstract:Under the mediation of Europe,the negotiations aimed at resuming the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) were held in Vienna. Nevertheless,due to the excessive differences between the United States and Iran,the negotiations have been stalled for a long time. The Biden administration has shown a willingness to return to the JCOPA,but has been strongly blocked by Republicans and Israel. As an intermediary in the Iranian nuclear talks,Europe can neither be independent externally nor united internally,which limits its ability to mediate the differences between the parties. The Ukraine Crisis,domestic protests in Iran and other events have aggravated the complexity of the situation,making the trend and outlook of the Iranian nuclear negotiations even more uncertain. Through its “resistance economy” and “Look East” policies,Iran has discovered a new path for economy and diplomacy,actively improved relations with neighboring countries. It has achieved the triple effect of economic development,security environment improvement and bringing pressure to the West. In the long run,a peaceful settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue still serves the interests of all relevant parties,and there is still room for cooperation under the JCPOA. Whereas,the variable for the final settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue is not the US-Iran relationship,but the transformation of the international system.

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作者简介

潘登:潘登,云南大学国际关系研究院硕士研究生。