从“俄罗斯北极战略2035”看北方海航道全年常态化运营

Abstract:Since the signing of the Strategy for the Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and Provision of National Security for the Period Up to 2035 in October 2020，Russia has been striving to build the Northern Sea Route into a “world-class corridor for maritime traffic”，with a series of practical measures adopted. From the perspective of strategic competition and cooperation among China，the United States，and Russia，the year-round operation of the Northern Sea Route would have a profound impact on the Arctic region in the next 10 to 15 years. For some time，the competition between the United States and Russia in the Arctic region has been manifested mainly in military confrontation，while the Arctic cooperation between China and Russia has been seen primarily in significant progress on the economic front，with the competition between China and the United States regarding Arctic affairs being less prominent than the cooperation between the two countries. It is premature for the formation of a strategic triangle in the Arctic region among China，the United States，and Russia to keep one another in check. However，the geostrategic environment in the Arctic region is subtly changing along with the three pairs of bilateral relations and the trilateral relations among China，the United States，and Russia. The expected year-round normalized operation of the Northern Sea Route is bound to change the ratio between competition and cooperation in the region，forming a new situation of competition and cooperation presented as a strategic triangle in the Arctic region among the three countries.Specifically，the normalized operation of the Northern Sea Route all year round will enhance cooperation in China-Russia relations；the United States’ suppression of the Route will aggravate its competition with Russia；and the trend of all-round competition between China and the United States will also be embodied in the construction of the Route. As a result，the strategic competition and cooperation among China，the United States，and Russia in the Arctic region will be generally characterized by more cooperation between China and Russia，more uncertainties between China and the United States，and more competition between the United States and Russia.

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