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从“俄罗斯北极战略2035”看北方海航道全年常态化运营

作者:罗颖 徐庆超 蔡梅江 出版日期:2023年08月 报告页数:20 页 报告大小: 报告字数:18000 字 所属图书:国别和区域研究(第六卷 2021年第3期,总第17期) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2020年10月普京签署《俄罗斯联邦至2035年北极地区发展和国家安全保障战略》以来,俄罗斯着手把北方海航道打造为“世界级海上交通走廊”,并采取了一系列务实措施,以期实现北方海航道全年常态化运营。从中美俄战略竞合的角度看,全年运营的北方海航道将给未来10~15年的北极世界带来深刻影响。一段时间以来,美俄在北极的竞争主要体现在军事上的对峙,中俄的北极合作主要体现在经济领域并取得了显著进展,而中美在北极的竞争较合作并不突出,中美俄在北极地区不足以构成相... 展开

文章摘要:2020年10月普京签署《俄罗斯联邦至2035年北极地区发展和国家安全保障战略》以来,俄罗斯着手把北方海航道打造为“世界级海上交通走廊”,并采取了一系列务实措施,以期实现北方海航道全年常态化运营。从中美俄战略竞合的角度看,全年运营的北方海航道将给未来10~15年的北极世界带来深刻影响。一段时间以来,美俄在北极的竞争主要体现在军事上的对峙,中俄的北极合作主要体现在经济领域并取得了显著进展,而中美在北极的竞争较合作并不突出,中美俄在北极地区不足以构成相互掣肘的战略大三角。然而,北极地缘战略环境正在发生变化,中美俄之间的三组双边关系和一组三边关系也在悄然生变,可预期北方海航道的全年常态化将使其中的竞争与合作配比发生改变,中美俄在北极形成战略大三角并呈现竞合新局面。具言之,北方海航道的全年常态化运营将增加中俄关系中的合作,而美国对北方海航道的遏制将加剧美俄竞争,中美的竞争势头也将体现在北方海航道建设上。由此,中美俄在北极的战略竞合将表现为中俄更合作、中美更摇摆、美俄更竞争的特点。

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Abstract:Since the signing of the Strategy for the Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and Provision of National Security for the Period Up to 2035 in October 2020,Russia has been striving to build the Northern Sea Route into a “world-class corridor for maritime traffic”,with a series of practical measures adopted. From the perspective of strategic competition and cooperation among China,the United States,and Russia... 展开

Abstract:Since the signing of the Strategy for the Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and Provision of National Security for the Period Up to 2035 in October 2020,Russia has been striving to build the Northern Sea Route into a “world-class corridor for maritime traffic”,with a series of practical measures adopted. From the perspective of strategic competition and cooperation among China,the United States,and Russia,the year-round operation of the Northern Sea Route would have a profound impact on the Arctic region in the next 10 to 15 years. For some time,the competition between the United States and Russia in the Arctic region has been manifested mainly in military confrontation,while the Arctic cooperation between China and Russia has been seen primarily in significant progress on the economic front,with the competition between China and the United States regarding Arctic affairs being less prominent than the cooperation between the two countries. It is premature for the formation of a strategic triangle in the Arctic region among China,the United States,and Russia to keep one another in check. However,the geostrategic environment in the Arctic region is subtly changing along with the three pairs of bilateral relations and the trilateral relations among China,the United States,and Russia. The expected year-round normalized operation of the Northern Sea Route is bound to change the ratio between competition and cooperation in the region,forming a new situation of competition and cooperation presented as a strategic triangle in the Arctic region among the three countries.Specifically,the normalized operation of the Northern Sea Route all year round will enhance cooperation in China-Russia relations;the United States’ suppression of the Route will aggravate its competition with Russia;and the trend of all-round competition between China and the United States will also be embodied in the construction of the Route. As a result,the strategic competition and cooperation among China,the United States,and Russia in the Arctic region will be generally characterized by more cooperation between China and Russia,more uncertainties between China and the United States,and more competition between the United States and Russia.

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作者简介

罗颖:罗颖 广东外语外贸大学南国商学院极地问题研究中心研究员。研究方向为极地研究与中华文化外译研究。

徐庆超:徐庆超 通讯作者,博士,中国科学院大学副研究员,中国科学院国家创新与发展战略研究会北极可持续发展中心主任、研究员。研究方向为极地研究与国际战略研究。

蔡梅江:蔡梅江 远洋船长,高级工程师,大连海事大学极地研究院院长(兼)。研究方向为极地研究与交通运输研究。