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中国未来风能、太阳能资源预估现状及展望

作者:吴佳 闫宇平 出版日期:2022年12月 报告页数:14 页 报告大小: 报告字数:13487 字 所属丛书:气候变化绿皮书 所属图书:应对气候变化报告(2022) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:大力开发风能和太阳能资源是缓解和适应全球变暖的有效途径。中国“双碳”目标提出后,“十四五”规划也为风电和光伏发电设定了与国家战略相适应的目标。在此背景下,开展中国未来风能、太阳能变化预估尤为关键,可为区域级能源发展规划提供科学指导。然而,目前中国地区风电和光伏发电量预估还缺乏高时空分辨率结果的支持,导致精细化预估未能开展,并且已有的研究结果之间存在较大的差异和不确定性,难以给出较为精确的结论。本文综述了我国在“双碳”背景下对风能、太阳... 展开

文章摘要:大力开发风能和太阳能资源是缓解和适应全球变暖的有效途径。中国“双碳”目标提出后,“十四五”规划也为风电和光伏发电设定了与国家战略相适应的目标。在此背景下,开展中国未来风能、太阳能变化预估尤为关键,可为区域级能源发展规划提供科学指导。然而,目前中国地区风电和光伏发电量预估还缺乏高时空分辨率结果的支持,导致精细化预估未能开展,并且已有的研究结果之间存在较大的差异和不确定性,难以给出较为精确的结论。本文综述了我国在“双碳”背景下对风能、太阳能预估的迫切需求、技术瓶颈、最新结果以及面临的挑战,并探讨当前预估结果对产业规划的可能影响以及不确定性。在此基础上提出加强风能太阳能资源的短期服务能力、中长期服务保障,进一步提高预估技术水平,协调资源开发利用的季节性和区域性差异,以更好地助力实现“双碳”愿景的短期和中长期气候服务目标。

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Abstract:The massive development of wind and solar energy resources is an effective way to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases in order to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The “14th Five-Year Plan” has set out new goals for wind power and photovoltaic power generation that are compatible with the proposal of China’s “double carbon” policy. In this context,it is important to project the future changes of wind and solar energy in... 展开

Abstract:The massive development of wind and solar energy resources is an effective way to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases in order to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The “14th Five-Year Plan” has set out new goals for wind power and photovoltaic power generation that are compatible with the proposal of China’s “double carbon” policy. In this context,it is important to project the future changes of wind and solar energy in China,which can provide a scientific basis for the formulation of policies at local scale. However,currently,due to the limitation of high spatial-temporal resolution simulations,the refined projection of wind power and photovoltaic power generation has not been carried out. In addition,large differences and uncertainties can be found in the previous studies,making it difficult to give a more accurate conclusion. This paper summarized the urgent demand for wind and solar energy projection,technical bottlenecks,the latest results and challenges for “double carbon”,and analyzed its possible impact and uncertainty on industrial plan. Finally,to better support the short-term,medium and long-term climate service goals of the “double carbon” target,it is proposed to strengthen the short-term,medium and long-term service assurance of wind and solar energy resources,further improve the projection technique,and well considerate the seasonal and regional differences in their development and utilization.

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作者简介

吴佳:吴佳,国家气候中心气候变化监测预估室研究员,研究领域为动力降尺度和区域气候变化。

闫宇平:闫宇平,国家气候中心气候变化监测预估室主任,正研高工,研究领域为清洁能源与气候变化。

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