中国未来风能、太阳能资源预估现状及展望

Abstract:The massive development of wind and solar energy resources is an effective way to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases in order to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The “14th Five-Year Plan” has set out new goals for wind power and photovoltaic power generation that are compatible with the proposal of China’s “double carbon” policy. In this context，it is important to project the future changes of wind and solar energy in China，which can provide a scientific basis for the formulation of policies at local scale. However，currently，due to the limitation of high spatial-temporal resolution simulations，the refined projection of wind power and photovoltaic power generation has not been carried out. In addition，large differences and uncertainties can be found in the previous studies，making it difficult to give a more accurate conclusion. This paper summarized the urgent demand for wind and solar energy projection，technical bottlenecks，the latest results and challenges for “double carbon”，and analyzed its possible impact and uncertainty on industrial plan. Finally，to better support the short-term，medium and long-term climate service goals of the “double carbon” target，it is proposed to strengthen the short-term，medium and long-term service assurance of wind and solar energy resources，further improve the projection technique，and well considerate the seasonal and regional differences in their development and utilization.

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