欧洲经济：增长前景黯淡

Abstract:The resurgence of the pandemic has led to renewed strains on the EU economy during the second half of 2021，while most countries across the EU end the year on a weaker note. After that，the pandemic situation improves，and the Russia’s war against Ukraine has become the major disruptive factor for European economy since February 24th，2022. The shortage of natural gas and supply bottlenecks pushed up the inflationary pressure，while hitting the confidence severely both in the production and household sector. The capital expenditure and private consumption contracted as the inflationary pressures weighed on the production costs as well as households’ purchasing power. The terms of trade were also worsened and the trade deficit widened in the Euro Area. In order to ensure the timely return of inflation to the medium-term target，the ECB has expedited its normalization of the monetary policy and raised the interest rate consecutively. As the geopolitical conflict continues，higher inflation accompanied with lower economic growth and less favorable financing condition is hard to dissipate in the near term. Therefore，the annual real GDP growth is expected to stand at 3.0%～3.5% in 2022 and drop to 0.3～0.6% in 2023.

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