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“颜色革命”衰退的路径与机制——基于后苏联空间11个国家的定性比较分析

作者:曾向红 张峻溯 出版时间:2021年09月 报告页数:47 页 报告大小: 报告字数:50318 字 所属图书:云大地区研究 2021年第1期(总第5期) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:21世纪初,“颜色革命”浪潮迅速席卷后苏联空间,并在欧亚国家间造成大范围的政局动荡。多年来,国内外学界对“颜色革命”的兴起与扩散进行了比较深入的研究,但鲜有对“颜色革命”衰退问题的研究。本文从“‘颜色革命’如何衰退”这一问题入手,借助“清晰集定性比较分析”的方法,选取后苏联空间内的11个案例国家进行比较政治研究,认为促成“颜色革命”衰退的路径有四层内涵:其一,以资源、地缘的利益契合顺应外部压力的影响;其二,国家政权当局利用寻租关系加强对国... 展开

文章摘要:21世纪初,“颜色革命”浪潮迅速席卷后苏联空间,并在欧亚国家间造成大范围的政局动荡。多年来,国内外学界对“颜色革命”的兴起与扩散进行了比较深入的研究,但鲜有对“颜色革命”衰退问题的研究。本文从“‘颜色革命’如何衰退”这一问题入手,借助“清晰集定性比较分析”的方法,选取后苏联空间内的11个案例国家进行比较政治研究,认为促成“颜色革命”衰退的路径有四层内涵:其一,以资源、地缘的利益契合顺应外部压力的影响;其二,国家政权当局利用寻租关系加强对国内精英集团的控制,并体现为“资源—经济”、权力分享、精英胁迫这三种寻租模式;其三,团结国际国内,坚决抵抗外部压力;其四,构建防范“颜色革命”风险的整体防线。“颜色革命”的衰退机制显示,政权当局的强硬态度是一国阻遏“颜色革命”的必要条件;无外部压力的影响、精英的有效整合以及边缘化反对派则是促成“颜色革命”衰退的核心条件。

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Abstract:At the beginning of the 21st century,the wave of Color Revolution quickly swept through the post-Soviet space and caused a wide range of political instability within Eurasia. Over the years,the academic circles at home and abroad have carriedout in-depth studies on the Color Revolution’s rise and spread,but rarely on its fading. This paper starts with the question of how does the Color Revolution fade,use the method of clear set ... 展开

Abstract:At the beginning of the 21st century,the wave of Color Revolution quickly swept through the post-Soviet space and caused a wide range of political instability within Eurasia. Over the years,the academic circles at home and abroad have carriedout in-depth studies on the Color Revolution’s rise and spread,but rarely on its fading. This paper starts with the question of how does the Color Revolution fade,use the method of clear set qualitative comparative analysis,and selects 11 case countries in the post-Soviet space to carry on the comparative political research. This paper finds that the successful paths of Color Revolution fading have four connotations:first,to adapt to the influence of external pressure with the interests of resources and geography;second,the Weak States use rent-seeking relationship to strengthen the control of domestic elite groups,which is reflected in three rent-seeking modes of resource-economy,power sharing and elite coercion;third,to unite the international and domestic forces to resolutely resist external pressure;fourth,to build a comprehensive defense against the risk of Color Revolution. By comparing the commonness of these four paths,we come to the conclusion that the tough attitude of the regime is a necessary condition for one country to deter the Color Revolution;the absence of external pressure,the effective integration of the elites and the marginalization of the opposition are the three core conditions that contributed to the Color Revolution fading.

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作者简介

曾向红:曾向红,兰州大学中亚研究所教授、兰州大学政治与国际关系学院副院长。

张峻溯:张峻溯,兰州大学政治与国际关系学院硕士研究生。

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