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大国博弈时代的全球政治与安全(2020~2021)

作者:金君达 邹治波 出版日期:2022年01月 报告页数:21 页 报告大小: 报告字数:22635 字 所属丛书:国际形势黄皮书 所属图书:全球政治与安全报告(2022) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2021年的国际形势受到新冠肺炎疫情和大国博弈激化的影响。新政府执政后,美国政府的战略理念从大国力量比对转向美西方力量整合,试图通过“价值观外交”联合盟友抢占规则主导权,以确保美国长期领导地位。虽然拜登政府表态愿管控中美冲突风险,与中国“既竞争又合作”,但其“价值观外交”客观上加剧了大国竞争,并导致中美竞争继续向治理、技术领域扩散。“价值观同盟”也对中国参与对外合作形成挑战,这些新挑战都加大了全球治理的难度,导致较严重的治理赤字。在大国博... 展开

文章摘要:2021年的国际形势受到新冠肺炎疫情和大国博弈激化的影响。新政府执政后,美国政府的战略理念从大国力量比对转向美西方力量整合,试图通过“价值观外交”联合盟友抢占规则主导权,以确保美国长期领导地位。虽然拜登政府表态愿管控中美冲突风险,与中国“既竞争又合作”,但其“价值观外交”客观上加剧了大国竞争,并导致中美竞争继续向治理、技术领域扩散。“价值观同盟”也对中国参与对外合作形成挑战,这些新挑战都加大了全球治理的难度,导致较严重的治理赤字。在大国博弈影响下,全球安全风险总体上升:随着美国向印太地区集中战略资源并强化同盟体系,台海、南海传统安全风险居高不下,恐怖主义风险因美国从阿富汗撤军而升高。与此同时,疫情继续影响全球经济,气候、能源、大宗商品、数字安全等非传统安全问题进一步复杂化,各国经济和社会稳定压力趋增,全球、区域和各国国内治理面临全方位挑战。拜登政府9月以来释放的信号增加了大国管控风险、共同应对上述挑战的可能性。展望2022年,国际格局变化危中有机,总体仍将向着多极化发展。我国应稳住中美关系、拓展多边合作,倡导公平合理的国际秩序,推动可行有效的全球治理。

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Abstract:The global politics and security in 2021 were mainly influenced by two factors - the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and great power competition. Compared to Trump Administration,the newly inaugurated Biden Administration emphasized on building alliance instead of competing with China unilaterally. While the Biden administration aimed to manage the risk of potential US-China conflict,by cooperating with China in certain areas while vigoro... 展开

Abstract:The global politics and security in 2021 were mainly influenced by two factors - the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and great power competition. Compared to Trump Administration,the newly inaugurated Biden Administration emphasized on building alliance instead of competing with China unilaterally. While the Biden administration aimed to manage the risk of potential US-China conflict,by cooperating with China in certain areas while vigorously competing in others,Biden’s “value-based alliance” actually increased the risk of US-China confrontation and created US-China rivalry in areas such as global governance and technological development. In an era of great power competition and pandemic,global governance deficit grew larger as existing international regimes struggled to solve emerging challenges;in addition,ideological disputes damaged multilateral cooperation. 2021 is also characterized by increasing conventional and unconventional security risks,mostly concentrated in the “Indo-Pacific” region. Quad countries continued to compete influence with China in Asia Pacific,increasing risk in South China Sea and Taiwan Strait;meanwhile,U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan increased the risk of resurrecting terrorism. The ongoing pandemic continued to shape global economics. Further unconventional risks,including climate change,energy and resource security,and digital security became more prominent as well. On the other hand,Biden administration showed interest in communicating with China,which might offer an opportunity to stabilize Sino-U.S. relationship and jointly manage aforementioned challenges. Looking forward,the international order is evolving toward a multilateral one,and China should stabilize Sino-U.S. relationship and promote global governance via multilateral cooperation.

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作者简介

金君达:金君达,政治学博士,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际政治理论研究室助理研究员,主要研究领域为美国政治、比较政治学。

邹治波:邹治波,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长、研究员,主要研究领域为国际关系和战略安全。