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警惕意大利主权债务风险形成冲击

作者:汤柳 出版日期:2019年07月 报告页数:18 页 报告大小: 报告字数:13372 字 所属丛书:金融监管蓝皮书 所属图书:中国金融监管报告(2019) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:近年来,意大利主权债务风险不断攀升,随时可能转化为系统性风险,这一事件被欧洲称为“意大利危机”。意大利危机是欧债危机的延续,主要表现为资金的大规模外流、主权债务风险与脱欧风险、银行体系风险、欧洲金融市场风险相互关联;其根源是统一货币的脆弱性,而意大利过度使用财政手段刺激经济和经济增长动力不足也是主要原因。鉴于意大利当局和欧盟有意加强财政约束,促进经济增长的结构性改革也得到广泛重视,加之欧盟的统一治理改革有助于欧元区的金融稳定,意大利问题得以缓解。然而,意大利政局的不稳定以及人口老龄化的加剧使得经济增长前景不明朗;平行货币的提议、欧元区财政一体化的缺位以及“多速欧洲”的提出均增加了风险升级的可能性,因此,应警惕意大利主权债务风险形成新的冲击。

Abstract:The Italian sovereign debt risk has been rising,which could turn into systemic risk. This event is called “Italian crisis” in Europe. The Italian crisis is a continuation of the European debt crisis,which is mainly manifested in the large-scale capital outflow,the correlation between the sovereign debt risk and the Euro-exited risk,the risk of the banking system and the risk of the European financial market. The main reason is the fragility of the single currency,which is also caused by Italy’s excessive fiscal stimulus and insufficient economic growth momentum. In view of the Italian authorities and the EU’s attention to strengthen fiscal consolidation,the structural reform to promote economic growth has also been widely valued,and the reform of the unified governance of the EU has contributed to the financial stability of the eurozone,the Italian crisis has been temporarily alleviated. However,political instability and ageing population in Italy have left the outlook for economic growth uncertain,while proposals for a parallel currency,the absence of fiscal integration in the eurozone and a “multi-speed Europe” have raised the possibility of the crisis.

作者简介

汤柳:汤柳,博士,中国社会科学院金融研究所副研究员,国家金融与发展实验室高级研究员,哈佛大学访问学者,主要研究方向为欧元治理、国际经济与国际金融。