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2016~2020年民盟执政以来的缅甸政党政治分析

作者:张添 出版日期:2021年07月 报告页数:30 页 报告大小: 报告字数:28940 字 所属丛书:缅甸蓝皮书 所属图书:缅甸国情报告(2020) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:缅甸民盟政权上台后,多党民主制继续发展,但缅甸政党政治却因制度化薄弱等问题呈现“向治而乱,将乱未乱”的状态。民盟与巩发党相互竞争,少数民族政党分化、边缘化与重组,黑马政党崛起的局面,整体来看是一种“三体格局”,即军人政党、民选政党和少数民族政党的三方结构,而这个结构遵循“杜弗格法则”。“向治而乱,将乱未乱”的具体表现包括军人政党对民选政党的“牵制”与“反牵制”、少数民族政党的不满与反抗和内外困局交互下的相对趋稳,而出现这些现象的原因是“虚伪代表性”的存在与执政意志的失灵、国家发展滞后与政党制度现代性的缺失,但军政博弈既是党际对立的“导火索”,也是“保险丝”。

Abstract:After theMyanmar National League for Democracy regime came to power,the multi-party democracy continued to develop,but the party politics in Myanmar showed a state of chaos due to the weakness of institutionalization and other problems. The competition between the Democratic League and the Union Solidarity and Development Party,the differentiation,marginalization and reorganization of ethnic minority parties,and the rise of the dark horse political parties,as a whole,is a “three-body pattern”. This kind of pattern followed the “Duforger Law” is the tripartite structure of military parties,elected political parties and ethnic minority parties. The chaotic situation performance specifically including the containment between the military party and the elected party,the minority party dissatisfaction and resistance and internal and external dilemma under the interaction of relative stabilization. The reasons for these phenomena are the existence of “hypocrisy representative” and the useless will to govern,as well as the national development lags behind and the lack of modernity of political party system. Although the military and political game is not only the “safety wire” of the inter-party confrontation,but also the “fuse”.

作者简介

张添:张添,云南大学国际关系研究院博士生,云南大学缅甸研究院助理研究员。