2020年全球宏观经济及投资回顾与2021年展望

Abstract:In 2020，COVID-19 epidemic has seriously affected the operation of the global economy，with production stoppage，consumption shrinking and unemployment surging. Global trade has shrunk sharply and the international industrial chain has been adjusted. We expect the global economy to decline by about 4% in 2020. Looking forward to 2021，the imbalance of vaccine distribution and vaccine supply will lead developed countries out of the epidemic，while the epidemic in developing countries will continue until 2022. In terms of asset allocation，the 2020 outbreak led to flooding in the global currency and asset bubbles. The asset trend of China in 2021 will be further differentiated. Assets of developed countries will be more favored by capital，while the risk of bond and exchange rate in developing countries will rise.

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