您好,欢迎来到一带一路数据库!

全库
全文
  • 全文
  • 标题
  • 作者/机构
  • 关键词
  • 主题词
  • 摘要
高级检索

您好,欢迎来到一带一路数据库!

2019年叙利亚政治形势与和解进程

作者:马帅 闫伟 出版日期:2021年03月 报告页数:14 页 报告大小: 报告字数:13202 字 所属丛书:叙利亚蓝皮书 所属图书:叙利亚发展报告(2020) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2019年,叙利亚冲突与和解并存。一方面,随着“美退俄进”的大国博弈态势演变,叙政府军在俄伊盟友支持下主导战场走向,国内与国际政治和解出现积极信号,叙政府和人民着手重建家园;另一方面,美国的撤军与土耳其的出兵引发各方力量的重新分化组合,域内外大国既合作又竞争的局面依旧错综复杂,叙利亚北部局势冲突升级,南部暴力事件、反抗运动时有发生。随着阿拉伯国家与巴沙尔政权关系的转暖以及叙利亚宪法委员会的召开,叙利亚政治和解在曲折多变中向前迈出重要一步。但是,叙利亚多年内乱带来的国家认同危机、族际关系紧张、结构性地缘矛盾以及非传统安全威胁将制约和解进程,加之反对派与极端组织残余盘踞伊德利卜负隅顽抗,叙利亚政治和解的羁绊依旧横亘眼前,短期内仍难以实现真正意义上的和解。

Abstract:In 2019,conflict and reconciliation coexist in Syria. On the one hand,with the evolution of the great power game of “US retreating and Russia advancing into Syria”,the Syrian government forces led the battlefield trend with the support of Russia and Iran allies,and positive signals appeared in domestic and international political reconciliation. The Syrian government and people began to rebuild their homes. On the other hand,the withdrawal of U.S. troops and the invasion of Turkey have led to the re-division of forces from all sides. The situation of cooperation and contradiction between foreign and regional powers is still complicated. The conflict in northern Syria has escalated. Violence and resistance movements in southern Syria have occurred from time to time. With the warming of relations between Arab countries and Bashar regime and the convening of Syria’s Constitutional Council,Syria’s political reconciliation process has taken an important step forward amid twists and turns. However,it should also be noted that the national identity crisis,ethnic tensions,structural geopolitical conflicts and non-traditional security threats brought about by years of civil strife in Syria will restrict the reconciliation process. In addition,the remnants of opposition and extremist organizations entrenched in Idlib will hold up their resistance. Syria’s political reconciliation is facing “internal and external troubles” and is still on the way.

作者简介

马帅:马帅,南开大学历史学院博士研究生,西北大学叙利亚研究中心特约助理研究员。

闫伟:闫伟,西北大学中东研究所教授。