您好,欢迎来到一带一路数据库!

全库
全文
  • 全文
  • 标题
  • 作者/机构
  • 关键词
  • 主题词
  • 摘要
高级检索

您好,欢迎来到一带一路数据库!

2020~2021年国际金融形势回顾与展望

作者:高海红 杨子荣 出版日期:2021年01月 报告页数:18 页 报告大小: 报告字数:12023 字 所属丛书:世界经济黄皮书 所属图书:2021年世界经济形势分析与预测 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2020年的国际金融市场笼罩在高度的不确定之中。新冠肺炎疫情暴发重创全球经济,各国普遍采取抗疫措施并推出史无前例的经济救助和刺激政策,全球利率水平进一步下调,各国当局纷纷采取财政刺激和纾困政策。与此同时,各国的债务水平再度攀升。高度的不确定性持续影响信心,国际投资者避险情绪急剧升温,美元避险功能凸显,黄金市场大幅走高。而在全球流动性充裕背景下,股票市场走势与实体经济表现严重背离。在国际油价剧降、外部融资条件恶化和金融脆弱性增强的背景下,新兴市场国家的金融稳定性再次面临挑战,多数国家货币纷纷贬值,资本流动的波动性大增,在严重时期甚至出现急停现象。展望未来,全球“低增长、低通胀、低利率、高债务、高赤字”的现象将存在一段时期,全球经济复苏路径和国际金融市场仍存在高度不确定性。

Abstract:In 2020,the international financial market is in the shadow of a high uncertainty. The outbreak of COVID-19 has seriously damaged the global economy. In response to the pandemic,all the countries have taken anti-epidemic measures and introduced unprecedented economic assistance policies. The authorities have lowered policy interest rates further. They have also adopted various monetary measures,together with massive fiscal stimulus and relief policies,to support the real economy and financial system. As the world fell further into the low inflation range,the debt levels of various countries have risen again. The high uncertainty affected confidence,and thus the rise of international investors’ risk aversion. The dollar’s safe-haven function has become prominent. The gold market has risen substantially. In the context of abundant global liquidity,the trend of stock market diverged from the real economy seriously. Against the background of a sharp drop in international oil prices,deteriorating external financing conditions,and increasing financial vulnerabilities,the financial stability of emerging market countries is once again facing challenges. Currencies of many countries have depreciated one after another,and the volatility of capital flows has greatly increased,and even sudden stops in severe periods. Looking ahead,the global phenomenon of “low growth,low inflation,low interest rates,high debt,and high deficits” will exist for a long time. The path to global economic recovery and the international financial market will still be highly uncertain.

作者简介

高海红:高海红,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究领域为国际金融。

杨子荣:杨子荣,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员,主要研究领域为国际金融。