2020～2021年国际金融形势回顾与展望

Abstract:In 2020，the international financial market is in the shadow of a high uncertainty. The outbreak of COVID-19 has seriously damaged the global economy. In response to the pandemic，all the countries have taken anti-epidemic measures and introduced unprecedented economic assistance policies. The authorities have lowered policy interest rates further. They have also adopted various monetary measures，together with massive fiscal stimulus and relief policies，to support the real economy and financial system. As the world fell further into the low inflation range，the debt levels of various countries have risen again. The high uncertainty affected confidence，and thus the rise of international investors’ risk aversion. The dollar’s safe-haven function has become prominent. The gold market has risen substantially. In the context of abundant global liquidity，the trend of stock market diverged from the real economy seriously. Against the background of a sharp drop in international oil prices，deteriorating external financing conditions，and increasing financial vulnerabilities，the financial stability of emerging market countries is once again facing challenges. Currencies of many countries have depreciated one after another，and the volatility of capital flows has greatly increased，and even sudden stops in severe periods. Looking ahead，the global phenomenon of “low growth，low inflation，low interest rates，high debt，and high deficits” will exist for a long time. The path to global economic recovery and the international financial market will still be highly uncertain.

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