2019年世界经济形势分析与2020年展望
文章摘要:2019年,受全球货币政策紧缩的滞后效应、贸易摩擦加剧及地缘政治因素影响,全球经济共振下行,主要指标降至历史低位。贸易冲突蔓延,全球贸易量萎缩。各大央行开启降息浪潮,以对冲经济下行风险。目前世界多国面临宏观政策空间受限、金融脆弱性加大和治理赤字扩大等风险,从而引发国际关系格局、贸易投资秩序、金融格局、产业分工格局和能源格局都将发生深刻变化。展望2020年,全球经济下行趋势可能在下半年有望筑底,在贸易摩擦不再恶化、地缘冲突风险可控的基准情境下,... 展开
Abstract:In 2019,affected by the lag effect of global monetary policy tightening,intensified trade friction and geopolitical factors,the global economy resonated downward,and the main indicators fell to historical lows. Trade conflicts spread and Global trade volume shrank. Major central banks have launched a wave of interest rate cuts to hedge against economic downside risks. Now many countries in the world are facing such risks as limite... 展开