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2019年世界经济形势分析与2020年展望

作者:万建发 朱培 出版日期:2020年05月 报告页数:31 页 报告大小: 报告字数:19592 字 所属丛书:报告系列 所属图书:中国投资发展报告(2020)

文章摘要

  2019年,受全球货币政策紧缩的滞后效应、贸易摩擦加剧及地缘政治因素影响,全球经济共振下行,主要指标降至历史低位。贸易冲突蔓延,全球贸易量萎缩。各大央行开启降息浪潮,以对冲经济下行风险。目前世界多国面临宏观政策空间受限、金融脆弱性加大和治理赤字扩大等风险,从而引发国际关系格局、贸易投资秩序、金融格局、产业分工格局和能源格局都将发生深刻变化。展望2020年,全球经济下行趋势可能在下半年有望筑底,在贸易摩擦不再恶化、地缘冲突风险可控的基准情境下,2020年全球经济增速有望维持在3.0%左右。

Abstract

  

In 2019,affected by the lag effect of global monetary policy tightening,intensified trade friction and geopolitical factors,the global economy resonated downward,and the main indicators fell to historical lows. Trade conflicts spread and Global trade volume shrank. Major central banks have launched a wave of interest rate cuts to hedge against economic downside risks. Now many countries in the world are facing such risks as limited macro policy space,increased financial vulnerability and expanded governance deficit,which will lead to profound changes in the pattern of international relations,trade and investment order,financial pattern,industrial division of labor pattern and energy pattern. Looking forward to 2020,the downward trend of the global economy is likely to bottom in the second half of the year. Under the benchmark situation of no deterioration of trade frictions and controllable risk of geopolitical conflicts,the global economic growth rate is expected to maintain around 3.0% in 2020.

作者简介

万建发:万建发,中国建投投资研究院秘书长

朱培:朱培,中国建投投资研究院研究员